662
FXUS63 KDMX 241737
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1137 AM CST MON FEB 24 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH SCATTERED SPRINKLES NORTH HALF
THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER COVERAGE (30-40%) OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
30-50% COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. COOLER WEDNESDAY.
- WARMING AGAIN THROUGH FRIDAY THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST MON FEB 24 2025
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING A QUITE DECENT WITH READINGS IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S OVER CENTRAL IOWA. THIS IS 40 TO 50 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY AS SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUPPORT THE "MILD" EARLY MORNING READINGS. ANOTHER RELATIVELY WARM
DAY IS IN STORE IOWA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE OVER-PERFORMED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND MAY DO SO AGAIN
TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME REASON FOR CAUTION. THERE ARE LIKELY
TO BE MORE CLOUDS TODAY LIMITING HEATING, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH
AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS CLOSER TO GUIDANCE THERE. FARTHER SOUTH, MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE THERMAL
RIDGE AND HAVE PUSHED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. SOME OF THE CAMS DO PRODUCE SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING ARRIVING BY
LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD
TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH THE
STRONGEST FORCING, HOWEVER OVERALL COVERAGE REMAINS 20-30% DUE TO AN
OVERALL LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.
THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS RAPIDLY TONIGHT WITH BRIEF SURFACE RIDGING
SLIDING THROUGH THE STATE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WARM ADVECTION THEN
INTENSIFIES INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE RACING QUICKLY TOWARD THE STATE IN FAST WNW FLOW ALOFT.
COOLER HIGHS ARE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST, AS THE
WARM ADVECTION DOESNT REALLY COME INTO PLAY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH READINGS REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. FORCING INCREASES INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA. ONCE AGAIN, THERE IS AN OVERALL LACK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE LIMITING COVERAGE AND QPF AS WELL AS ANY IMPACTS.
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH COLD ADVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY ALTHOUGH HIGHS CONTINUE TO REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY BUT
FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. THEREFORE, THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS WELL NORTHEAST OF IOWA. HOWEVER, THE THERMAL
RIDGE DOES SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. COOLING IS EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THROUGH THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES STAY
ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT REAL THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AT THE
END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST WHEN A SHORTWAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ARRIVES WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST MON FEB 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY, WITH JUST
SOME MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD. SOME PRECIPITATION IS
BEING DETECTED ON RADAR IN THE NORTH, BUT LITTLE OF THIS IS
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND.
EARLY THIS EVENING, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH,
SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHTNING. THAT SAID,
THUNDER COVERAGE LOOKS MINIMAL, SO HAVEN'T INCLUDED IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT KMCW AND
KALO, BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THEY REACH KFOD AND KDSM AS
WELL. ASIDE FROM SHOWERS, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT NORTH TOMORROW MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS LEAD TIME SO NO MENTION IN TAFS.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...COGIL
AVIATION...DODSON
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