611
FXUS63 KDMX 251001
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
401 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, FAVORING
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA (20-30%), BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FIGHTING DRY AIR.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY, BUT WARMING TO END THE WEEK WITH
DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING.
- WINDY FRIDAY WITH SOME INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
SURFACE RIDGING THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY TO START THE DAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
REINTENSIFYING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHS SURGE AGAIN INTO 50S TO
EVEN 60S AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IOWA. THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL IOWA CLOSER TO THE THERMAL RIDGE. WITH THE DELAYED ONSET OF
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE DAY, NORTHEAST AREAS LOOK TO NOT WARM AS MUCH COMPARED TO
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AREAS BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE PLEASANT FOR LATE
FEBRUARY AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
THE NEXT FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW
CROSSING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA AND A BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO
THE SOUTH. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING
THE EXTENT OF RAINFALL COVERAGE AND OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH THE
EVENT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HI-RES MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THEIR TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN 00-6Z
TONIGHT (6PM-MIDNIGHT) LARGELY DUE TO VARIATIONS IN SATURATION.
SOUNDINGS TEND TO SUPPORT THE DRIER SOLUTIONS AND TAKE TIME FOR ANY
RAIN TO DEVELOP AND SUBSEQUENTLY REACH THE GROUND THROUGH THE LOWER
LEVEL DRY AIR. HAVE KEPT WITH SOME SPRINKLE OR LOW-END POPS (<20%)
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION AND
FORCING FROM THE LOW, SHOULD SATURATION OVERACHIEVE, BUT MAY NEED TO
CONTINUE TO TRIM THESE BACK WITH TIME. COVERAGE MAY BE ABLE TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN THE 6-12Z TIMEFRAME (MIDNIGHT-6AM) ESPECIALLY
EAST AND SOUTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY, THOUGH EVEN THEN THE DRY AIR
CONCERNS REMAIN. ANY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THAT DO OCCUR WILL QUICKLY
WRAP UP BY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED OVERALL IMPACTS GIVEN THE
LOW PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (IF ANY FOR MANY).
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY, COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERS
INTO THE AREA MAKING FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY COMPARATIVELY TO
SURROUNDING DAYS, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 40S TO 50S. THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
WILL NEED TO WATCH A COUPLE SYSTEMS CROSSING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA FOR ANY WOBBLES SOUTHWARD THAT SCRAPE THE FAR NORTHEAST.
WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS IN EARNEST FRIDAY SENDING TEMPERATURES
SURGING AGAIN WITH BETTER MIXING GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW REMAINING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SEVERAL DAYS FOR FUELS TO DRY OUT
FOLLOWING THE SNOW MELT, WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
DEPENDING ON THE FUEL STATUS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL TO END THE WEEK, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH IS GREATER THAN 40-50% IN MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING 40 MPH GUSTS NEAR THE BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER
NORTH, AND HIGHER GIVEN THE EXPECTED INCREASED MIXING.
ANOTHER COOL DOWN MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND, THOUGH AGAIN STILL NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL, BEFORE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB AGAIN TO START
THE NEXT WORK WEEK, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A SYSTEM TO START THE
WEEK WHICH REMAINS HIGHLY VARIABLE AT THIS LONG LEAD TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST MON FEB 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE IN PLACE AT 06Z AND
THEN SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
SEEMS TO HAVE DECREASED SINCE THE 00Z ISSUANCE DUE TO A BIT
STRONGER FLOW AND WILL BE OMITTED UNTIL TRENDS DICTATE
OTHERWISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS WELL WITH NOTHING BEYOND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS
INTO THE EVENING.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KCM
AVIATION...SMALL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page