645
FXUS63 KDMX 252053
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
253 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS.
- MILD, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACCOMPANY MILD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AS HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACH UNSEASONABLY
HIGH VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S. UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER HAS
STARTED TO DRIFT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, FILTERING SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY REDUCING SURFACE HEATING
FOR THOSE AFFECTED. FURTHER UPSTREAM, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE DAKOTAS THIS WAVE WILL MAKE
IT’S WAY TOWARD THE STATE TONIGHT, BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THIS RAINFALL WILL
LOOK AS IT MOVES THROUGH, STILL SHOWING SOME VARIATION IN
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. SOUNDINGS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURATE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS EVENING, BUT WILL NEED TO OVERCOME A
STOUT DRY LAYER IN ORDER FOR RAIN TO BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE.
MOST SOUNDINGS HAVE THIS MOSTLY OCCURRING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA, BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER CENTRAL IOWA. THE BIGGER CHALLENGE IS
IDENTIFYING WHERE. SINCE SATURATION IS MOST LIKELY TO BE
ACHIEVED AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES FURTHER EAST, THE BEST CHANCES
LOOK TO BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER POCKET OF MUCAPE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PUNCH THROUGH THE DRY AIR OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE EARLIER IN THE EVENING. THIS SAME
PROCESS COULD ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS/STORMS. THEREFORE, THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR
RAINFALL LOOK TO BE OVER NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA, THEN
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE, WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST WHERE SATURATION IS LESS LIKELY TO BE
ACHIEVED. EVEN THEN, CHANCES ARE LOW (20-30%) AND IF RAINFALL IS
OBSERVED, IT LIKELY WON’T BE MUCH MORE THAN A FLEETING SHOWER
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AT TIMES.
COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF TONIGHT’S WAVE,
BRINGING A SLIGHT DIP IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW AND
THURSDAY. LIKEWISE, COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASED MID-LEVEL
WINDS WILL LEAD TO BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL
IOWA TOMORROW. AS TONIGHT/TOMORROW’S WAVE DEPARTS, YET ANOTHER
WILL DROP SOUTH BEHIND IT, THIS TIME REMAINING DRY, BUT STILL
BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY. OUR PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN COMES TO A HEAD ON FRIDAY, AS A MORE
PROMINENT WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND 50S AGAIN ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION
TO THE TEMPERATURES, WINDS LOOK TO BE QUITE STRONG SURROUNDING
THIS LOW, WITH EFFICIENT MIXING AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COOL FRONT
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND. THE RESULT IS A POTENTIAL FOR
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH OVER THE AREA, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE NORTH. SHOULD THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE COME TO
FRUITION, WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED, BUT THAT WILL BE BETTER
DECIDED IN THE COMING DAYS. LIKEWISE, WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AND LEAD TO INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WITH BREEZY
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FUELS WILL HAVE HAD PLENTY OF
TIME TO DRY AFTER THE SNOW MELT AS WELL.
FINALLY, BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, A COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE STATE, DIMINISHING TEMPERATURES
AGAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVERHEAD WILL
TREND TO MORE OF A RIDGING PATTERN, BUT WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED
LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO JUST MISS THE FORECAST AREA, BUT A
NORTHERLY SHIFT IN IT’S TRACK WOULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. MILD AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST TUE FEB 25 2025
TAFS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 1.5K TO 2.5K FT LOOK TO MOVE IN
TOMORROW MORNING. THAT SAID, MAIN IMPACT TO TAFS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT WINDS TODAY CHANGING FROM GENERALLY
WESTERLY THIS MORNING, TO MORE SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
AND THEN BACK TO WESTERLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A FRONT PASSES.
ALONG THIS FRONT, SOME LLWS MAY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
IOWA, IMPACTING KDSM AND KOTM. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THEN
PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW.
IN ADDITION TO CHANGING WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER, THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE LOW IN THESE OCCURRING AT ANY GIVEN TAF SITE, SO HAVE
KEPT OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. THAT SAID, SHOULD CONFIDENCE FOR
RAIN OCCURRING AT A TERMINAL INCREASE, WILL UPDATE TAFS
ACCORDINGLY.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DODSON
AVIATION...DODSON
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