013
FXUS63 KDMX 261148
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
548 AM CST WED FEB 26 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT STILL MILD WITH
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED.
- WARMER AND WINDY FRIDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 403 AM CST WED FEB 26 2025
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEAST
IOWA WHILE SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED BENEATH THE SURFACE LOW IN
NORTHERN IOWA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHTER. THIS FOG HAS
BEEN, AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE, TRANSIENT EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
COULD CAUSE A BRIEF DROP IN VISIBILITY IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IOWA
AT TIMES IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOULD LARGELY
END IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL WITH ONLY A STRAY SPRINKLE OR SO
LINGERING PAST 12Z (6AM) SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH EASTWARD WITH TIME THIS MORNING. COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO FILTER INTO THE STATE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. THE CAA PAIRED WITH CLOUDS AT TIMES SHOULD HOLD OUR
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS,
ESPECIALLY NORTH, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 40S TO 50S. IN
SAYING THIS, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENT OF OUR CLOUD
COVER TODAY WITH SOME MODELS OVERDOING CURRENT CLOUD COVER IN THE
REGION AND THUS PROVIDING A SCENARIO WHERE INCREASED SUNSHINE MAY
HELP TEMPERATURES WARM ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES THAN ADVERTISED. TODAY
WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH THE CAA AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL WINDS
LEADING TO GUSTS OF UP TO AROUND 25-30 MPH THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS
BEFORE WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT.
THE CAA CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND
A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST HELPING TO BOOST WINDS AGAIN BY
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING NORTH TO MID MORNING CENTRAL WITH GUSTS OF 25-
35 MPH OR HIGHER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE GUSTY WINDS
DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A STRONGER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGIONS ON FRIDAY WHICH CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A DRY PASSAGE IN IOWA
AT THIS POINT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS AND LIMITED SATURATION IN THE MID-
LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION IS
EARLY IN THE DAY AS WELL, SEVERAL HOURS AHEAD OF ANY SATURATION
OCCURRING LEADING TO A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHOULD ANY ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE BE REALIZED THIS FAR SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. THE MORE NOTICEABLE WEATHER IN IOWA ON FRIDAY
WILL BE WINDY CONDITIONS AND ALSO THE RETURN TO MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES FRIDAY MORNING AND
TEMPERATURES SURGE TO THE 50S TO EVEN 60S! BETTER MIXING AND AN
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE SYSTEM PASSING TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL LEAD TO WINDS AROUND 25-35 MPH AND GUSTS OF 35-45
MPH, THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN NORTHERN IOWA. STRONGER GUSTS ALSO
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING WINDS OF
45-55 MPH BETWEEN THE BOTTOM AND TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
RESPECTIVELY MAKING FOR SOME 50 MPH GUSTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, WIND HEADLINES
MAY BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL ADDRESS IN FUTURE FORECAST
CYCLES. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND, THE WARM AND OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FRIDAY WITH FUELS
HAVING SEVERAL DAYS TO DRY OUT PAST THE MELTING SNOW EARLIER IN
THE WEEK.
A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LEADING
TO ANOTHER DROP IN TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AND HIGHS SATURDAY NEAR TO STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE
30S TO 40S. INCREASING TEMPERATURES WILL THEN FOLLOW SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS SOME BRIEF RIDGING PASSES THROUGH ON SUNDAY, BUT ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS QUICK TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST. TIMING, STRENGTH,
AND LOCATION OF SYSTEM DETAILS ARE STILL TO BE IRONED OUT BUT A
MORE ACTIVE WEEK MAY BE IN STORE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST WED FEB 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MVFR, OR EVEN LOWER,
CIGS AT TIMES THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NORTH,
CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS QUITE LOW WITH
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS MOSTLY LOWER VFR AND NOT SUPPORTING THE
MVFR CIGS. AS SUCH, HAVE RAISED CIGS WITH THIS ISSUANCE AS OBS
SUPPORT VFR (VERSUS MVFR), BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHAT VALUES
THESE CEILINGS WILL BE REMAINS LOWER GIVEN MODEL SPREAD IS NOT
MATCHING REALITY. UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED, BUT AT THIS POINT
GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL. WINDS QUICKLY BECOME
BREEZY THIS MORNING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KNOTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WINDS THEN DECREASE TONIGHT FOR
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH
STRONGER WINDS THAN TODAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KCM
AVIATION...KCM
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