969
FXUS63 KDMX 270542
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1142 PM CST WED FEB 26 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER TO FINISH THE WORK WEEK.
- WARMEST DAY REMAINS FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S SOUTH. NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN CLOUD COVER, WHICH AFFECTS WINDS AND
RHS.
- TEMPERATURES RECOVER SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES EXISTENT MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST WED FEB 26 2025
A DEEPENING LOW CLOSED AT H850 CONTINUED TO PUSH EAST, BUT REMAINED
AN INFLUENCE IN THE WEATHER TODAY. ITS SURFACE COUNTERPART HAS A
TRAILING BOUNDARY ACCOMPANYING IT: THIS IS THE CULPRIT FOR THE
OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLUMN REMAINS
TOO DRY FOR RAIN, SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT. ANOTHER BOUNDARY WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A FEW CAMS GENERATED SOME
PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS LINE, BUT PROFILES AGAIN CONTAINED TOO MUCH
DRY AIR TO BE CONFIDENT IN THIS OUTCOME. HAVE PUT IN NONZERO
CHANCES, BUT CHANCES ARE BELOW 15%.
SURFACE RIDGING CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE STATE BY LATE THURSDAY, SO
HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR WAA REGIME. UPPER AIR FLOW
BECOMES WESTERLY--AND STRONG--THURSDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, SOUTHWEST
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS LIMITED RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. HAVE RAISED LOW
TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY, A
POTENT WAVE DIVES ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN, DRAGGING
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE BEGINNING IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE BETTER MOISTURE CONCENTRATION IS WELL UP
INTO THE DEFORMATION ZONE REGION NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. INSTEAD, WE
WILL RECEIVE CAA AND STRONG WINDS AS THE FRONT PASSES. LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR DRY ADIABATIC ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
SOUNDING PROFILES MIXING IN MAX WINDS OF AROUND 50KTS AT THE TOP OF
THE LAYER. THE CHALLENGE THIS FAR OUT WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THAT WILL LINGER NEARBY, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS NOT FAR AWAY. AT THE VERY LEAST, THIS WOULD LOWER THE
CHANCES FOR SEEING PEAK MIXED LAYER WINDS REACH THE SURFACE, BUT
WINDS WILL BE IN WIND ADVISORY RANGE NONETHELESS. ANTICIPATE SEEING
THESE HEADLINES BE HOISTED WITHIN THE NEXT ONE OR TWO ISSUANCES.
HAVE OPTED TO FOREGO THIS ISSUANCE DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THE
FRONT AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER UNCERTAINTY.
WITH THE WINDS AND EFFICIENT MIXING IN PLACE FRIDAY, FIRE WEATHER
BECOMES A CONCERN. WHILE EARLY IN THE SEASON, MILD CONDITIONS THIS
WEEK HAVE HELPED MELT SNOWPACK AND DRY OUT FUELS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE QUESTION
HERE AGAIN IS THE CLOUD COVER AND HOW MUCH IT COULD INHIBIT WARMING
AND MIXING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE A DAY-LONG RETURN TO SEASONAL
HIGHS FOR SATURDAY, BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. AN APPROACHING LOW
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS PRESERVES A SOUTHERN STREAM TRACK, BUT BUILDS
IN AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF IT. THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
CROSSES THE PLAINS, BUT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA. THE NEXT
SYSTEM IN QUESTION WILL BE QUEUING UP ON THE WEST COAST IN THE
MEANTIME, AFFECTING IOWA SOMETIME IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN EVOLUTION (OPEN WAVE OR CLOSED LOW) AS WELL
AS IN EXACT TRACK. THEREFORE, DETAILS ON WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE OVER
IOWA REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT THE LIKELY CHANCE FOR RAIN IN SOUTHERN
IOWA TUESDAY EVENING IS AT LEAST WELL PLACED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST WED FEB 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 06Z,
RANGING FROM MID/HIGH CEILINGS NORTH TO CLEAR SKIES SOUTH. THESE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING
GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND INCREASING NW WINDS MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY REACH 20-30 KTS UNTIL
DIMINISHING 22-00Z. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR/MVFR CLOUDS NORTHEAST INTO MIDDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
INSUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
WHILE BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, IT SHOULD ALSO BE
NOTED THAT LLWS WILL BECOME PREVALENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY WITH 1,600FT 40-50 KT WINDS COMMON BY 28/09Z, AND
45-55KTS BY 12Z.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JIMENEZ
AVIATION...SMALL
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