025
FXUS63 KDMX 010001
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
601 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNING/WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM
- BRIEF COOLDOWN SATURDAY; THEN WARMING AGAIN WITH CHANCE
RAIN/SNOW (25-35%) MONDAY.
- MIDWEEK SYSTEM BRINGS POTENTIAL MIX AND GREATER AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION (80 TO 90% CHANCE)
- FAST AND ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO LATE NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2025
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH
THE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RELAX INTO THE EARLY EVENING AFTER SUNSET
THOUGH THE NORTHEAST WILL STILL SEE SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE DEEP 986 LOW OVER NORTHEAST MN AT 12Z WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST AND BE IN ONTARIO BY 06Z SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOW OVER CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND BE THROUGH IOWA BY 00Z. THIS WILL
USHER IN SOME COLDER AIR TONIGHT AS H850 TEMPERATURES DROP TO -8C
SOUTHWEST AND AS COLD AS -15C NORTHEAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH A RANGE OF THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH. TOMORROW A COLD CANADIAN HIGH WILL PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION AND EXPAND EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHTER FROM THE NORTHWEST AND DAMP THE HIGHS OVER THE REGION.
TOMORROW WILL SEE AFTERNOON READINGS MORE TYPICAL FOR EARLY MARCH.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S/40 IN
THE SOUTH. SOME RETURN WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH ALREADY BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME CLOUDS RETURNING
TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL WITH
OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVING SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE REBOUND. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARMER AIR WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE
REMAINS A LEAD SHORT WAVE ARRIVING IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
BY EARLY MONDAY, BUT WITH BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY BETWEEN THE GFS/EC
OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS. THE GFS IS NOW WEAKER, SIMILAR TO THE EC
OF YESTERDAY AND BOTH TRACK IT SOUTH OF IOWA. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECEDING THE WAVE
AND MOST, IF NOT ALL OF IT WILL BE OVER BY MIDDAY MONDAY. CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MINIMAL (25 TO 35%) FOR THE PERIOD. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE THE LOWER 50S NORTHEAST TO THE MID
50S SOUTHWEST. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TUESDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO WEDNESDAY. THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS GFS/EC DIFFER
QUITE A BIT, THE ENSEMBLE SUITES OF BOTH MEDIUM RANGE ARE LEANING
TOWARD A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION; MUCH LIKE THE EC DETERMINISTIC.
WITH THAT THE MAIN SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK JUST SOUTHEAST OF IOWA
WITH AN INITIAL PUSH OF WARM AIR MAKING IT THROUGH AT LEAST THE
SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS
TOWARD THE REGION, COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE BACK OF THE
SYSTEM. WITH A MORE CLASSIC SPRING STORM IN THE OFFING, WE WILL
LIKELY SEE A WELL DEVELOPED DEFORMATION AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN
MO NORTHEAST TO AT LEAST I35 MOST OF TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT; THEN SHIFTING EAST AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH WESTERN AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION, WE MAY SEE SOME
SYSTEM STRENGTH FLUCTUATIONS. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY DEEPENING THE
LOW TO 971 MB AS IT TRACKS TO JANESVILLE WI WHILE THE EC IS
WEAKENING THE SYSTEM INTO MORE OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH WITH TWO
984 MB CENTERS. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION, THIS WILL PRODUCE
SOME HIGHER END WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PASSING LOW WITH A
PROBABLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FROM NEAR THE
GULF COAST EARLIER TUESDAY NORTHEAST TO NEAR OHIO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS LIQUID,
THERE WILL BE SOME RISK OF SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS; MAINLY
TO THE EAST OF I35 AND CLOSER TO EASTERN IOWA. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN SNOWFALL IS GENERALLY AN INCH WHILE THE EC SHOWS A COUPLE
OF INCHES OVER THE EAST. THE PRECIPITATION MEAN IS 0.50 TO 1.5
IN THE EC OVER THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE
GEFS IS A BIT LESS AT 0.5 TO 1.25, BUT BOTH RESPECTABLE AMOUNTS
FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF IOWA. THE INITIAL SURGE
OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY MAY ALSO BRING SOME STORMS TO THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CHANCES FOR ANY IMPACTFUL STORMS
IS LOW, BUT SOME HAIL AND WIND MAY OCCUR. AFTER THE STORM
PASSES, WE WILL GET A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLDER AIR WITH A RETURN
TOWARD MILDER CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY. WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUING, BOTH MODEL SUITES AGAIN SHOW A NEW SYSTEM APPROACHING
BY FRIDAY WITH THE EC FARTHER SOUTH IN TRACK. WE INTRODUCE SOME
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY, BUT MUCH MORE EVALUATION WILL BE NEEDED
FOR PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS IN THE DAYS AHEAD. HIGHS MID TO LATE
WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S/40S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S/30S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE
NEXT 6 HOURS, LOSING THEIR GUSTS COMPLETELY BY AROUND 09Z OR SO.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL LESSENING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS WELL.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REV
AVIATION...HAHN
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