985
FXUS63 KDMX 251701
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1201 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN ENDS INTO MIDDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
- MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY, BUT DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
RAIN, WITH A FEW GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS, HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS IN ESPECIALLY PARTS OF CENTRAL IOWA WHERE AMOUNTS OVER
HALF TO 1" HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. THIS RAINFALL CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH BULK OF THE RAIN ENDING BY MIDDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE WET
CONDITIONS FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTH TODAY AND THEN OUT OF THE EAST ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP THE
WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT TODAY, BUT MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEFORE CLOUDS START TO MOVE BACK IN LATER IN
THE DAY INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
BY SATURDAY EVENING, MID-LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES TO BE BACK OUT OF THE
SOUTH BRINGING THE RETURN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) LEADING TO
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS WAA INDUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE REGION
FROM THE GULF. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES BUT
CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME
WITH THE BETTER THREAT TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA, AS SEEN IN THE SPC
DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY PUSHES EAST-NORTHEAST
ON MONDAY WHILE THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE
ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY SURGES EASTWARD MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
AS WELL, BUT MORE AS AN OPEN WAVE. WITH AN OPEN GULF CONTINUING
TO BRING AMPLE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ARE
FORECAST. THESE WILL BE PAIRED WITH VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO 80S AS THE THERMAL RIDGE MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE
STATE ON MONDAY. A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET REALLY HELPS ENHANCE
THE WIND FIELD MONDAY WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM, MOIST
AIRMASS HELPS BALLOON INSTABILITY VALUES BY THE AFTERNOON. THE
BASIC INGREDIENTS ARE ALL IN PLACE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY,
BUT, THE OVERALL THREAT STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON
STORM TYPE, LOCATION, AND TIMING LIKE IF STORMS DEVELOP IN THE
WARM SECTOR VERSUS ALONG TO BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH
MOVES THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY TO KICK OFF THE BULK OF STORMS AFTER
SOME EARLY DAY ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS THREAT OVER THE COMING DAYS AS ADDITIONAL HI-RES GUIDANCE
STARTS TO REACH INTO THE FORECAST WINDOW. AT THIS POINT, THE SPC
DAY 4 OUTLOOK COVERS THE POTENTIAL THREAT WELL WITH THE MAIN
TAKEAWAY TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS WE GET TOWARDS
MONDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOLLOW ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION TO END THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
LOW CEILINGS CURRENTLY BLANKETING THE AREA, WITH BASES GENERALLY
BETWEEN FL008 AND FL014, WITH GRADUALLY RISE AND CLEAR FROM NW
TO SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, AFTER WHICH MVFR HEIGHTS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THE BACK EDGE CLEARS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG IN NORTHERN
IA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THAT MAY IMPACT MCW/FOD, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION AT THIS RANGE AND IT
WILL BE ASSESSED FOR FUTURE ISSUANCES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER RISES AFTER THE RAINFALL
YESTERDAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BUT OVERALL TRENDS KEEP MANY
RISING BASINS ONLY INTO ACTION STAGE WITH THE CEDAR BASIN,
SPECIFICALLY BLACK HAWK CREEK AT HUDSON, AND THE NORTH RACCOON
SPECIFICALLY NEAR PERRY, THE HIGHER CANDIDATES TO AT LEAST NEAR
MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE OCCURRED OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IOWA, BUT HAVE GENERALLY
BEEN ON TRACK OF FORECASTED VALUES FOR THE MOST PART. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY AND WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...LEE
HYDROLOGY...05
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