832
FXUS63 KDMX 291720
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1220 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND COOLER TODAY
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND AGAIN
ON FRIDAY, SEVERE THREAT IS LOW
- DRY AND WARMER THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
THE LAST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS CLEARING THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND THE COLD FRONT BEHIND WAS BISECTING THE STATE AS OF 2
AM. THIS MEANS THAT FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA REMAINS IN THE 70S WHILE
NORTHWEST IOWA HAS FALLEN INTO THE LOW 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAIN BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT, GUSTING 25-30+ MPH. BY LATE
MORNING WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL CLEAR, MAKING FOR A
COOLER (MORE SEASONABLE) AND SUNNY DAY.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE SHORT-LIVED WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN TO
FINISH OUT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT INTO
THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT WINDOW FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THIS
BEGINS TO PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE THAT WILL DRAG
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY KICKING
THINGS EAST. INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY MEAGER DURING THIS TIME WITH
ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE. WITH SHEAR ALSO 30 KTS OR
LESS AT THE SAME TIME, CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
SEVERE. QPF OF AROUND 0.25-0.5" IS LIKELY (60- 80% CHANCE) IN
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN IOWA.
A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT ONCE
AGAIN INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE LACKING WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. BY SATURDAY RIDGING SHIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
HAVE ADDED IN SHRA MENTIONS FOR KDSM AND KOTM AFTER 12Z TO
REFLECT RAIN ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH. CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS FOR KOTM, BUT THESE WOULD BE NON-SEVERE. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL RIGHT AT 18Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...JIMENEZ
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