819
FXUS63 KDMX 292336
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
636 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TONIGHT.
- RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. NO SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED, AT THIS TIME.
- LIGHT RAIN AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER THROUGH FRIDAY, WARMING
BACK UP OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
HEIGHT RISES AND A SURFACE HIGH KEPT WEATHER FAIR TODAY. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH'S
INFLUENCE INCREASES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH
SOME PLACES IN THE NORTH REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S. MAIN CHANGE
THIS FORECAST WAS LEANING ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT. A MIXTURE
OF SUBSIDENCE, CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALREADY
ALLOW LOWS TO UNDERPERFORM, BUT ADD TO IT THE DRY LOW-LEVELS
(SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ON AVERAGE AROUND 15
DEGREES) FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO
SINK INTO THE MID 30S. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ONLY AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AS MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
THEIR SNOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AFTER MIDNIGHT, KEEPING
SOUTHERN IOWA WARMER, IN COMPARISON.
SOME NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW IN THE SW US WILL NOW ARRIVE IN THE REGION
BEFORE THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DOES, DEEPENING AS IT DOES. THIS
FEATURE WILL LOCK IN MOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH AND
REDIRECT IT INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE MORE SOUTHERLY TREND OF
THE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH IT, WITH MUCAPE
VALUES REMAINING UNDER 500 J/KG IN THE FAR SOUTH. THERE WILL BE SOME
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS MUCH INSTABILITY, BUT ACTIVITY
WON'T BE SEVERE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LARGELY UNDER AN INCH, BUT
CONVECTION IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT THE CLOUDY, WET
CONDITIONS. THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM DIVES IN FOR THURSDAY,
BRINGING WITH IT AN REINFORCING SHOT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING. FINALLY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PIVOTS FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH IOWA BEING
IN PROXIMITY OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND BY RETURNING INTO THE 70S. ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER WON'T BE
FAR AWAY AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE CLOSED LOW IN THE SW US WILL
CHURN IN PVA AND GULF MOISTURE, HENCE THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE WEST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, STEADILY TRANSITIONING TO
AN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY TOMORROW MORNING. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TOMORROW AS SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES
MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
INITIAL ARRIVAL OF THESE SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE FALL INTO DRY AIR
CURRENTLY OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, AS THEY SATURATE THROUGH THE DAY,
EXPECT LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY, WITH THE CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JIMENEZ
AVIATION...DODSON
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