788
FXUS63 KDMX 011732
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1232 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- SPOTTY SHOWERS TODAY WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY,
MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
- DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING TO
THE 70S BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI HAS ALLOWED
FOR A BROAD AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN IOWA WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY LIGHT FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN
SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEAST IOWA BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD, THOUGH
VISIBILITY REMAINS AROUND 2-3 MILES IN MOST INSTANCES. BY THIS
AFTERNOON A REINFORCING WAVE OF WEAK FORCING PASSES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL PULL A NARROW RIBBON OF
MODEST - FEW HUNDRED J/KG - MLCAPE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT SEVERE, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE A BIT WITH THE BOUNDARY
PASSAGE AS WELL WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING 20+ MPH GUSTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, THE FINAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FINALLY PASSES ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST CAM AND SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE FOCUS ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN IOWA WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION INTO
NORTHERN IOWA.
THE TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTH BY THE WEEKEND, HELPING TO DRY
THINGS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THAT SAID, THE EXIT HAS SLOWED IN MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH DEVELOPMENT INTO A CUTOFF LOW THAT CHURNS JUST EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE AREA REMAINS DRY, THIS DOES
KEEP THE AREA A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS THE
EXPECTED RIDGE GETS PINCHED BETWEEN CUTOFF UPPER LOWS TO BOTH THE
EAST AND WEST. EVEN SO, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S THROUGH SUNDAY. ALL IN ALL, DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT WEEKEND.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES INTO NEXT WEEK AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE WESTERN
US LOW WILL FINALLY LIFT INTO THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND EURO SUITES
INDICATE THIS MAY BE DELAYED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS WILL BLANKET THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
SLOWLY RISING THIS WEEKEND AND BREAKING OUT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH INTERMITTENT REDUCED
VISIBILITY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. PROBABILITY/FREQUENCY OF IMPACTS
IS LOW ENOUGH THAT PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN CARRIED, BECAUSE
WHILE IT IS VERY LIKELY EVERY TERMINAL WILL SEE SHRA/TSRA DURING
THIS TIME, THE DURATION IN THE AGGREGATE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN 50%. ONCE THE SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OUT THIS EVENING, AND
CEILINGS RISE/BREAK UP, VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, MORE LOW MVFR CEILINGS MAY WORK BACK INTO
THE NORTHEAST (MCW/ALO) BY AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...LEE
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