847
FXUS63 KDMX 081932
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
232 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF SMOKE TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
- BREEZY START TO THE WEEK, SHOWER CHANCES (20-50 PERCENT)
NORTH/NORTHEAST
- FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
- NEXT CHANCE (60-70 PERCENT) FOR MORE ORGANIZED, WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WEDNESDAY NIGHT &
INTO THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
WEAK "COOL" FRONTAL PUSHED ANY INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SOUTH INTO MO EARLIER TODAY. IN ITS WAKE,
FORCING/MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING H7 FRONT HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN/WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT - PERHAPS AS MUCH AS A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. LIFT WANES AND MOISTURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING, AND
SO TOO WILL THE SHOWER CHANCES. LATEST HRRR NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE
OUTPUT KEEPS SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES THRU THE OVERNIGHT
FOR AREAS GENERALLY ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
STATE, WITH SOME DISPERSION TOWARDS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE PARENT
UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOUNDARY WATERS AT THE MOMENT, WILL SLOWLY
DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO WI BY MIDDAY MONDAY, SLIDING ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED "COOL" FRONT INTO NORTHEAST IA.
SHOWER CHANCES (20-50 PERCENT) WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY
NORTHEAST COUNTIES AS A RESULT. SIMILAR TO TODAY, LIMITED
LIFT/INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN ANY AMOUNTS BEING VERY LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY BENEATH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH COMMON MOST PLACES.
THE PESKY UPPER LOW FINALLY DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
LEAVING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING AS H85
WARM-AIR THERMAL ADVECTION RETURNING; AND ALONG WITH FULL
INSOLATION WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S AND TUESDAY
AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST 90S OF THE SEASON FOR
WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT ORGANIZED AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO
IOWA BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT STALLS THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. PWATS
INCREASE TO 1.5-2, WHICH WOULD PUT IT AT 90% OF HISTORICAL DAILY
NORMS. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR A
SWATH OF GOOD RAIN NEAR WHERE THE WARM FRONT ENDS UP AT.
INSTABILITY WILL SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR VSBYS AT KDSM
AND KOTM (NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL REMAIN DRY). DRIER NEAR
SURFACE AIR MASS BEHIND A MORNING "COOL" FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS
PUSHED ANY INSTABILITY SOUTH INTO MO AS WELL, EFFECTIVELY
REMOVING THUNDER POTENTIAL FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON, COMING TO AN END BY
EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER CHANCE (20-30%) OF -SHRA IS EXPECTED AT
KMCW 10-15Z MONDAY; DRY ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE, GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL KICK IN AGAIN ON MONDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS, WITH GUSTS
OF 20-25 KNOTS EXPECTED.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HAHN
AVIATION...HAHN
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