523
FXUS63 KDMX 090710
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
210 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF SMOKE TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
- BREEZY START TO THE WEEK, SHOWER CHANCES (20-50 PERCENT)
NORTH/NORTHEAST
- FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
- NEXT CHANCE (60-70 PERCENT) FOR MORE ORGANIZED, WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WEDNESDAY NIGHT &
INTO THURSDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2025
INITIAL COOL FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH ON SUNDAY IS NOW WELL
SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI, AND SURFACE FLOW HAS
COME BACK AROUND TO WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS MOST OF IOWA. HOWEVER,
CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THAT FRONT HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA, RESULTING IN AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, A SECOND TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH ESTHERVILLE AND MASON CITY AS OF THIS
WRITING. BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW IS SPREADING IN BEHIND THIS SECOND
TROUGH, ALONG WITH A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD AND SOME LIGHT RAIN.
WHILE THE TROUGH WILL SURGE COMPLETELY THROUGH IOWA TODAY, IT
WILL BE LOSING ITS OOMPH AND DAYTIME MIXING WILL LIMIT THE
INTRUSION OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ACCORDINGLY, HAVE KEPT
HIGHEST SKY AND POPS IN OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
TODAY. INITIALLY ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW FLASHES OF
LIGHTNING ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN
THESE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST FOLLOWED BY A LULL BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITH THE
DIURNAL MAXIMUM THIS AFTERNOON. DURING BOTH ROUNDS, INSTABILITY
WILL BE FAR TOO LIMITED FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, AND EVEN
THUNDER MAY BE HARD TO COME BY. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE A RELATIVELY
COOL AND BREEZY DAY ONCE AGAIN. ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT ANY
LINGERING NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY SUNRISE THIS
MORNING, BUT THE HRRR CONTINUES TO DEPICT A STREAM OF SMOKE
ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD TODAY, SO HAVE INCORPORATED THAT INTO THE
SKY COVER FORECAST AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
WEAK "COOL" FRONTAL PUSHED ANY INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SOUTH INTO MO EARLIER TODAY. IN ITS WAKE,
FORCING/MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING H7 FRONT HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN/WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT - PERHAPS AS MUCH AS A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. LIFT WANES AND MOISTURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING, AND
SO TOO WILL THE SHOWER CHANCES. LATEST HRRR NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE
OUTPUT KEEPS SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES THRU THE OVERNIGHT
FOR AREAS GENERALLY ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
STATE, WITH SOME DISPERSION TOWARDS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE PARENT
UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOUNDARY WATERS AT THE MOMENT, WILL SLOWLY
DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO WI BY MIDDAY MONDAY, SLIDING ANOTHER MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED "COOL" FRONT INTO NORTHEAST IA.
SHOWER CHANCES (20-50 PERCENT) WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY
NORTHEAST COUNTIES AS A RESULT. SIMILAR TO TODAY, LIMITED
LIFT/INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN ANY AMOUNTS BEING VERY LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY BENEATH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH COMMON MOST PLACES.
THE PESKY UPPER LOW FINALLY DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
LEAVING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING AS H85
WARM-AIR THERMAL ADVECTION RETURNING; AND ALONG WITH FULL
INSOLATION WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S AND TUESDAY
AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST 90S OF THE SEASON FOR
WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT ORGANIZED AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO
IOWA BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT STALLS THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. PWATS
INCREASE TO 1.5-2, WHICH WOULD PUT IT AT 90% OF HISTORICAL DAILY
NORMS. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR A
SWATH OF GOOD RAIN NEAR WHERE THE WARM FRONT ENDS UP AT.
INSTABILITY WILL SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST IS
LARGELY UNCHANGED SINCE THE LAST UPDATE WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS
EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST IOWA MONDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON AND
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD WITH A PROB30 GROUP AT
KMCW. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS ALL SITES WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS EXPECTED INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...LEE
DISCUSSION...HAHN
AVIATION...HAGENHOFF
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