473
FXUS63 KDMX 091715
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1215 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF SMOKE TO PERSIST TONIGHT
- BREEZY START TO THE WEEK, SHOWER CHANCES (20-50 PERCENT)
NORTH/NORTHEAST
- FIRST 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
- NEXT CHANCE (60-70 PERCENT) FOR MORE ORGANIZED, WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WEDNESDAY NIGHT &
INTO THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
WEAK "COOL" FRONT PUSHED ANY INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SOUTH INTO MO EARLIER TODAY. IN ITS WAKE,
FORCING/MOISTURE ALONG THE TRAILING H7 FRONT HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN/WILL
CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT - PERHAPS AS MUCH AS A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH. LIFT WANES AND MOISTURE DEPARTS THIS EVENING, AND SO
TOO WILL THE SHOWER CHANCES. LATEST HRRR NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE
OUTPUT KEEPS SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES THRU THE OVERNIGHT
FOR AREAS GENERALLY ACROSS GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
STATE, WITH SOME DISPERSION TOWARDS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE
PARENT UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOUNDARY WATERS AT THE MOMENT, WILL
SLOWLY DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO WI BY MIDDAY MONDAY, SLIDING ANOTHER
MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED "COOL" FRONT INTO NORTHEAST
IA. SHOWER CHANCES (20-50 PERCENT) WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY
NORTHEAST COUNTIES AS A RESULT. SIMILAR TO TODAY, LIMITED
LIFT/INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN ANY AMOUNTS BEING VERY LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY BENEATH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH COMMON MOST PLACES.
THE PESKY UPPER LOW FINALLY DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
LEAVING DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING AS H85
WARM-AIR THERMAL ADVECTION RETURNING; AND ALONG WITH FULL
INSOLATION WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S AND TUESDAY
AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST 90S OF THE SEASON FOR
WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT ORGANIZED AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO
IOWA BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT STALLS THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. PWATS
INCREASE TO 1.5-2, WHICH WOULD PUT IT AT 90% OF HISTORICAL DAILY
NORMS. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR A
SWATH OF GOOD RAIN NEAR WHERE THE WARM FRONT ENDS UP AT.
INSTABILITY WILL SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2025
UPPER LOW OVER WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO DRIVE AVIATION WEATHER
OVER IOWA TODAY. LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS RAISED AREA CEILINGS IN
NORTHERN IOWA TO VFR, THUS THIS TAF FORECAST IS VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT MCW AND ALO THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE, SURFACE WINDS ARE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, RELAXING THIS EVENING AND BACKING TO THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...LEE
DISCUSSION...HAHN
AVIATION...DMD
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