293
FXUS63 KDMX 091941
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
241 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF SMOKE TO PERSIST TONIGHT
- NOTICEABLY WARMER WEDNESDAY
- NEXT CHANCE (60-70 PERCENT) FOR MORE ORGANIZED, WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WEDNESDAY NIGHT & INTO
THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY CENTERS ON THE MID TO LATE WEEK
SYSTEM.
UPPER LOW IS FINALLY DEPARTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE
PATTERN ADJUSTING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST. AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TUESDAY, A WARM
FRONT SETS UP IN ITS WAKE OVER NORTHERN IOWA. THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR STORMS WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY, COULD SEE SOME
EMBEDDED SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH
THURSDAY, KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE DETAILS FOR THURSDAY DEPEND LARGELY ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION THE
DAY/NIGHT BEFORE. GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE, AREAS NEAR THE FRONT AND AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARIES WILL NEED CAREFUL MONITORING FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL.
MEANWHILE, ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US AND POTENTIALLY
INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY LATE WEEK. LOTS OF SPREAD
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME ON THIS EVOLUTION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2025
UPPER LOW OVER WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO DRIVE AVIATION WEATHER
OVER IOWA TODAY. LOW LEVEL MIXING HAS RAISED AREA CEILINGS IN
NORTHERN IOWA TO VFR, THUS THIS TAF FORECAST IS VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT MCW AND ALO THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE, SURFACE WINDS ARE GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, RELAXING THIS EVENING AND BACKING TO THE WEST OR
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DMD
AVIATION...DMD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page