338
FXUS63 KDMX 100347
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1047 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF SMOKE TO PERSIST TONIGHT
- NOTICEABLY WARMER WEDNESDAY
- NEXT CHANCE (60-70 PERCENT) FOR MORE ORGANIZED, WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WEDNESDAY NIGHT & INTO
THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY CENTERS ON THE MID TO LATE WEEK
SYSTEM.
UPPER LOW IS FINALLY DEPARTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE
PATTERN ADJUSTING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST. AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TUESDAY, A WARM
FRONT SETS UP IN ITS WAKE OVER NORTHERN IOWA. THIS FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR STORMS WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY, COULD SEE SOME
EMBEDDED SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH
THURSDAY, KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE DETAILS FOR THURSDAY DEPEND LARGELY ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION THE
DAY/NIGHT BEFORE. GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE, AREAS NEAR THE FRONT AND AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARIES WILL NEED CAREFUL MONITORING FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL.
MEANWHILE, ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US AND POTENTIALLY
INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM BY LATE WEEK. LOTS OF SPREAD
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME ON THIS EVOLUTION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED. WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BE PASSING ACROSS IOWA AGAIN
BUT AT THIS TIME NO IMPACTS TO VSBYS IS FORECAST. LIGHT WEST
WIND OVERNIGHT MAY BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES ON TUESDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING AND TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE EVENING.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DMD
AVIATION...DONAVON
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