644
FXUS63 KDMX 292346
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
646 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN INTO THIS EVENING YET
- SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREATS REMAIN THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE
PRIMARY CONCERN, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3
INCHES OR MORE, ESPECIALLY WEST
- COOLER AND DRIER THURSDAY AND BEYOND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED GENERALLY THROUGH THE DAY,
THOUGH A VERY BRIEF REPRIEVE OCCURRED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
IOWA AS A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM DECAYING CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTH DOVE SOUTHWARD, LEADING SO SLIGHTLY REDUCED
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED AS OF 2PM ACROSS THE AREA
WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA AND IN THE
LOW 90S SOUTH. THE EXPECTATION REMAINS THAT VALUES WILL INCREASE
FURTHER INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN INTO THIS EVENING, WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING IN AROUND 105+ DEGREES IN SOUTHERN IOWA AND EXTENDING
UP TO AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR, THUS THE EARLIER EXPANSION OF
THE HEAT ADVISORY FURTHER NORTH THAT WILL REMAIN UNTIL 8PM.
THE ATTENTION THEN PRIMARILY BECOMES VERY FOCUSED ON THE RETURN OF
ACTIVE WEATHER THIS EVENING, WHICH PER CAM GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME
VARIATION BETWEEN MEMBERS ON WHEN THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS WITH THE
PASSING BOUNDARY. HRRR AND FV3 MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT STORMS BEGIN TO
FIRE AROUND OR JUST AFTER 7-8PM, WHILE MORE TEND TO FAVOR CONVECTION
DEVELOPING INTO WESTERN IOWA AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BETWEEN 10PM-
12AM. GIVEN AN INCREASE IN FORCING TO LIFT WITH THIS BOUNDARY, ALONG
WITH THE INCREASE OF AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL JET FURTHER WEST, AND
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY OVER 3000+ J/KG THOUGH SHEAR IS MORE MARGINAL,
STORMS SHOULD HAVE NO ISSUE DEVELOPING BUT MAY BE MORE MESSY IN
COVERAGE AS UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES. WITH WARM
AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AS WELL, THIS CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE MORE
ELEVATED IN NATURE, WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 J/KG SUPPORTING
AT LEAST A SMALL HAIL THREAT, THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN
SEVERE HAZARD AS DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG ARE DEPICTED IN
RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTHWESTERN IOWA. THE SLIGHT RISK PER
SPC REMAINS REASONABLE, WITH MORE OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK FURTHER
NORTH AND EAST. OF INCREASING CONCERN AS WELL IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL, AS HREF GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING KICKING OUT AMOUNTS OF 1-3+ INCHES OF
RAINFALL , ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN/WESTERN IOWA, WHILE THE GEFS HAS
THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. WHILE THE VARIABILITY REMAINS ON
THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL, THE CERTAINTY IS HIGH THAT
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FALL SOMEWHERE IN THESE AREAS, WHICH HAS
RESULTED AFTER COORDINATION OF NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH FOR MUCH OF WESTERN INTO SOUTHERN IOWA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH
RIVER RISES THAT COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS, WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED PER THE SLIGHT ERO THAT THE WPC INCLUDED IN THE AREA,
THOUGH MORE BROAD IN COVERAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING
UNCERTAINTIES. DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS CONDITIONS SET UP.
FOLLOWING THE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WILL SEE MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY AND
SURFACE FLOW SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY, WHICH WILL USHER IN COOLER AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S
ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA. HOWEVER, FURTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST, A BOUNDARY
OVERHEAD WITH THE AREA REMAINING IN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LEAD
TO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANY
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD POSE PRIMARILY DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE MAIN THREATS AGAIN.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND WILL BE COME WITH MUCH QUIETER AND COOLER
WEATHER OVER SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE SINKS DOWN, THOUGH SOME
LOW END CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION. THESE DETAILS WILL BE ASSESSED IN THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT THE MOMENT, BUT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
FROM NEAR SLB TO IKV TO OOA. THESE MAY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AND HAVE PROB30 GROUPS FOR THIS AND/OR AS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AS STORMS ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING.
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO RESTRICTIONS THAT WILL
MORE OR LESS PREVAIL AS ROUNDS OF STORMS ROLL THROUGH LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR IAZ004-005-015-023>025-033>037-044>050-057>062-
070>075-081>086-092>097.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ057>062-
070>075-081>086-092>097.
DISCUSSION...BURY
AVIATION...ANSORGE
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