115
FXUS63 KDMX 302326
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
626 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW WEAK STORMS AND/OR FUNNEL CLOUDS
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
- REMAINING COOL WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
- SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN SUNDAY MAINLY WEST WITH LOW SEVERE
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE BULK OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS NOW WELL EAST INTO IL/WI. HOWEVER, A BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN IOWA WITH WEAK FORCING OVERHEAD HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY OVERHEAD ALONG WITH
INCREASED SURFACE VORTICITY RESULTED IN SOME FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS
OVER NORTHERN IOWA, WHICH PER MODEL GUIDANCE MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN MINIMALLY
IMPACTFUL. IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE, THERE ARE SOME
WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR BEHIND THE DEPARTING BOUNDARY INTO IL, WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
WELL. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY ARE
QUITE LOWER AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER ACROSS THE STATE,
ALLOWING FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA. INTO THIS
EVENING, CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
ENTERING NORTHWESTERN IOWA, WHICH WEAK LIFT OVER THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
WESTERN IOWA AND TRY TO PUSH INTO WEST-CENTRAL IOWA INTO TONIGHT.
GIVEN LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES AROUND 500J/KG AND LIMITED FORCING,
THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IS LOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BELOW A HALF
INCH IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE WESTERN BORDER NEAR
AN INCH MAY OCCUR.
INTO THURSDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT WILL KEEP DRY AND
QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE START OF THE
WEEKEND ALSO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY, THOUGH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
FEW MID-LEVEL TROUGHS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAT LOOK TO BRING A
RETURN TO SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY STORMS BY SUNDAY, THOUGH THE
PARAMETER SPACE SEEMS TO REMAIN GENERALLY MORE FAVORABLE WEST
OF IOWA BUT WILL HAVE TO FURTHER REFINE ANY DETAILS IN THE
COMING DAYS AS MORE GUIDANCE CAPTURES THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S INTO THE NEXT
WORK WEEK, INCREASING SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW 80S
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER THE STATE THAT ARE IN VFR AT THE MOMENT,
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO TREND INTO MVFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS AT
ALO, DSM, AND OTM LATER THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LONGEST DURATION AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS IS AT
DSM AND OTM AND IT IS POSSIBLE CEILINGS MAY DROP INTO HIGH END
IFR TOWARD MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACT AT A GIVEN TERMINAL OR ANY IMPACTS
ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. AFTER THURSDAY MORNING, CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE INTO VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURY
AVIATION...ANSORGE
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