559
FXUS63 KDMX 082011
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
211 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- COLD AND BLUSTERY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S AND
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30+ MPH.
- WARMER TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION TYPES HAVE GENERALLY EVOLVED AS EXPECTED SO FAR WITH
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH, TRANSITIONING TO A MIX ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA, AND RAIN IN THE SOUTH. SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN HIGHEST IN
NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT
IN THE AREA WHERE THE DEFORMATION ZONE PIVOTED ACROSS. AREAS IN
OUR WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST COUNTIES, AND INTO THE SIOUX
FALLS CWA IOWA COUNTIES HAVE SEEN 2-4 INCHES WITHIN THE ADVISORY
AREA WITH UNDER 2 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA EAST OF THE
ADVISORY. HIGHER SNOW RATES THIS MORNING WERE ABLE TO OVERCOME
INITIAL WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WITH PARTIALLY SNOW COVERED
ROADS IN THE NORTHWEST. AS RATES HAVE SLOWED INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND THE DOT HAS BEEN ABLE TO TREAT ROADS, CONDITIONS HAVE
QUICKLY IMPROVED. IN MOST CASES ROADS ARE GENERALLY WET WITH
ACCUMULATIONS IN GRASSY AREAS. EVEN SO, SLICK SPOTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE SNOW IS FALLING.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SKIRT ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND CONTINUES
LIFTING EAST SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO FILTER IN ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA, AND IF WE ZOOM OUT FOR A WIDER VIEW OF THE
MIDWEST WE SEE THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
SITTING NORTH OF THE AREA AND ROTATING AROUND TO PUSH SOUTH INTO
THE AREA. AS THIS SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION REACHES THE AREA
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS NOTE
LINGERING SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE THIS EVENING, AND OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED BY
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND INCREASING WINDS
HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OF A MORE
SHOWER-Y VARIETY. THESE WOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND WOULD
PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION, BUT COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S AND REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL AFTER DARK ROADS SHOULD QUICKLY COOL AS WELL AND
MAY ICE UP, ESPECIALLY ELEVATED AND UNTREATED SURFACES. BE READY FOR
SLICK SPOTS THIS EVENING AND ON SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS THE STATE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE 25-30+ MPH
GUSTS POSSIBLE, RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND
20 DEGREES THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
COLD AIR STICKS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY, BUT THIS WILL BE THE END AS
WINDS LIGHTEN AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. BY
TUESDAY RIDGING RETURNS WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION SENDING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE MID 50S. THE 50S STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH 60S POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
SNOWFALL CONTINUES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SITES, WITH A MIX OF RAIN OR
SNOW ELSEWHERE THIS PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED TO ADJUST TIMING OF P-
TYPE CHANGES BASED OFF OF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE TRANSITION ZONE
REMAINS JUST NORTH OF DSM HOWEVER WAS NOT CONFIDENT TO
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SNOWFLAKES AT DSM PROPER THUS HELD ONTO
-RASN MENTIONS THROUGH 02Z. OTM SHOULD REMAIN AS ALL RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN TEMPS NEAR 40 DEGREES. HOWEVER, AS TEMPS COOL
THIS EVENING, REMNANT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE
AT OTM EARLY TONIGHT.
ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR OF PRECIP LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR
CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR AFTER 06Z. NE'LY WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NW
AND BECOMING BREEZY AS COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES. WIND GUSTS NEAR 18KTS
SHOULD BE COMMON OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS INCREASING BETWEEN
20-25KTS TOMORROW MORNING WITH VFR CIGS.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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