100
FXUS63 KDMX 250450
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1050 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN TODAY, TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WITH SPOTTY,
LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- BECOMING BREEZY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE AREA. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45+ MPH
POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT IN NORTHWEST IOWA.
- HIGHS IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINTRY
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER SPECIFIC
DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
THE FORECAST THIS WEEK IS ACTIVE WITH RAIN, FOG, A TEMPERATURE
SWING, WIND, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER (IN THAT ORDER).
>>TODAY AND TUESDAY: RAIN AND FOG
A SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE LOW, PUSHING NORTH INTO
IOWA. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS IOWA THROUGH THE DAY. MOST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH DRIER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WITH
PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM TODAY'S RAIN AND LIGHT WIND,
FOG DEVELOPMENT IF LIKELY ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY MORNING. MOST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WIDESPREAD AREAS WITH VISIBILITY UNDER A MILE WITH POCKETS OF
VISIBILITY DROPPING TO A HALF OR QUARTER MILE OR LESS BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
MEANWHILE, A QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY MORNING, REACHING IOWA BY
MIDDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER BRIEF WINDOW FOR SPOTTY, LIGHT
RAIN TO THE AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT PASSES QUICKLY
ACROSS THE AREA. AND SPEAKING OF COLD FRONTS...
>> WINDY TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, TURNING COLDER
COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH BEHIND THE MAIN BOUNDARY WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE STATE TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AS THIS
HAPPENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA, WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA
SHOW GUSTS OF 30-40+ KTS THAT WILL BE PULLED TO THE SURFACE. AT
THE TOP OF THE LAYER GUSTS OF 40-50+ KTS ARE AVAILABLE, HOWEVER
TIMING FOR GUSTS OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE DIURNAL HEATING
WINDOW SHOULD PREVENT THE STRONGEST GUSTS FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF IOWA WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY
EVENING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, HELPING TO RELAX WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA.
WITH COLDER AIR USHERED INTO THE AREA, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY (AND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK) WILL BE IN THE 30S
WITH A FEW AREA IN NORTHERN IOWA REMAINING IN THE UPPER 20S. ASIDE
FROM WIND TAPERING OFF ON WEDNESDAY, THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND ON
THANKSGIVING THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND QUIET.
>> WINTRY WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND?
BY FRIDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE 500 MB
LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, THOUGH 700 AND 850 MB LEVEL FEATURES ARE
MORE SIMILAR. THE GFS SOLUTION FAVORS TWO SEPARATE WAVE
IMPACTING THE AREA, THE FIRST ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY WITH A MORE
ROBUST SYSTEM PHASING WITH THE FIRST SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE EURO SOLUTION, HOWEVER, PHASES BOTH WAVES ON FRIDAY
FOR A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM EARLY ON, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOBE OF
VORTICITY DROPPING ACROSS IOWA BY NEXT MONDAY. PICKING ANY
SOLUTION WITH CERTAINTY IS NOT REASONABLE AT THIS TIME FRAME,
BUT WE CAN LOOK AT TRENDS AND WHERE CONSISTENCY LIES AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT THE GFS AND EURO, AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES, INDICATE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
PARTS OF IOWA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE
FOR A BRIEF WINTRY MIX IN SOUTHERN IOWA THIS WEEKEND WHEN
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME IS THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL IMPACT
AMOUNTS AND LOCATION FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THOSE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY,
IT WILL CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
VERY LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING. THIS WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING
LIFR OR VLIFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAFS UNTIL AROUND 14-16Z, WITH
IFR THEREAFTER AND PERHAPS MVFR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AMENDMENTS
ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING TO REFINE SHORT-TERM
TRENDS IN CATEGORY CHANGES. IN ADDITION, STRONG AND GUSTY WNW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AND MAY
RESULT IN 20+ KT CROSSWINDS ON SOME RUNWAYS.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
IAZ004>007-015>017-023-024-033-034-044-045.
DISCUSSION...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...LEE
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