518
FXUS63 KDMX 252353
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
553 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONGEST
WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 35-45+ MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT. SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
OVERNIGHT.
- MUCH COLDER STARTING WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
COLD AND DRY WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND THE FIRST HALF OF
FRIDAY.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATION LATER
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ENDING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
GOES-EAST IMAGERY PAINT THE PICTURE OF IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECTATIONS THORUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON
A LARGE COMMA HEAD FEATURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA, TRAILING
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. SPOTTY LIGHT
LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, NEAR
AND JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT 2 PM. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SWING EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE AREA.
MEANWHILE, WINDS ARE INCREASING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA HAVE GUSTED 35-40 MPH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 45+ MPH ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WHEN STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE 35-40 KT
GUSTS THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WITH 50+ KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER. THE HIGHEST 50+ KT GUSTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE REALIZED
OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER STRONG GUSTS OVER 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THESE WILL
TAPER OFF ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IS WRAP AROUND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SKIMMING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. RATES WILL BE
VERY LIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN IOWA COUNTIES. WITH STRONGER WINDS SOME VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER LOW RATES AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD PREVENT MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS DRIVING THE STRONG WINDS, AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. AFTER WIND
TAPERS OFF ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT COLD, DRY, AND QUIET CONDITIONS
TO SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF WEDNESDAY, THROUGH THE
DAY ON THANKSGIVING THURSDAY, AND WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE THE WINDOW FOR BEST TRAVEL CONDITIONS THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH A ROBUST WINTRY SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT
IOWA AND MUCH OF THE MIDWEST LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
ENDING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
ALL EYES ARE ON THE SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE GFS AND EURO, AND THEIR ENSEMBLES, HAVE COME INTO
DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE 06Z AND 12Z RUNS WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. THIS DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN
THAT RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY HAS GONE, AND IT WILL BE IMPORTANT
TO REMAIN READY FOR SHIFTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS IT
CURRENTLY STANDS, EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEK AND UNDERGO LEE
CYCLOGENESIS AS IT LIFTS EAST. REACHING THE MIDWEST, THE
LEADING ARM OF AIR ADVECTION WIND WILL PHASE WITH INCREASING
DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO THE
CENTRAL US. PRECIPITATION BEGINS ALONG THE WARM FRONT (WARM IN
THIS CASE STILL NEAR NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING) LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THEN AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST, CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA, THE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SWEEP ACROSS IOWA ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. WITH DRY AIR SLOTTING IN BETWEEN,
SOUNDINGS DO SHOULD A PERIOD OF LOSS OF ICE INTRODUCTION
SATURDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO A WINTRY MIX, ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN IOWA. SOUTHERN IOWA MAY ALSO SEE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHICH COULD IMPACT
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WELL. AT THIS RANGE 5-6 DAYS OUT PINNING
DOWN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS TRICKY AND WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BOTH ROUNDS (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY)
ARE EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTFUL SNOW TO THE AREA WITH HIGH
CHANCES (75-90% CHANCE) FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF IOWA (ESTHERVILLE TO AMES AND GRINNELL AND
POINTS NORTH) WITH 30-50% CHANCES FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES IN
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN IOWA.
SNOW ENDS OVERNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY. COLDER AIR FILTERS
IN ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO AT LEAST MVFR ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING AS STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST
CONTINUE. WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 KNOTS TO
45 KNOTS. OVER NORTHERN IOWA, LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE BACK IN THIS
EVENING AND TRANSITION TO SNOW. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SNOW AND POSSIBLY IFR RESTRICTIONS TO MCW WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN PRECIPITATION AND ITS IMPACTS AT FOD AND ALO SO HAVE
MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS AT THOSE LOCATIONS. ALL THE
PRECIPITATION WILL WRAP UP BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH DSM AND OTM
NOT HAVING ANY PRECIPITATION. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE INTO VFR FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WHILE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST GRADUALLY TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR IAZ004>007-015>017-
023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>073.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
IAZ074-075-084>086-095>097.
DISCUSSION...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...ANSORGE
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