794
FXUS63 KDMX 261011
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
411 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER MUCH OF IOWA THROUGH
SUNRISE, AND SLIGHTLY LATER FOR NORTHEAST IOWA, WITH EXPECTED
GUSTS OVER 40-45 MPH.
- MUCH COLDER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND SIMILAR VALUES
THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW ACCUMULATION LATER
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, ENDING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
WINDY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER WISCONSIN
WITH ITS EASTERN FRINGES STILL COVERING IOWA AS NOTED BY THE VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, SLOWLY DEPARTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS
GRADIENT, ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION MIXING DOWN TO THE
SURFACE EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS FOR GUSTS LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH SEVERAL SITES HAVING MAXIMUM BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTS UP
TO 50-55+ MPH, WHERE LAMONI AND DES MOINES, FOR EXAMPLE, HIT 61 MPH
FROM THESE SYNOPTIC WINDS, WHICH ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR BEING
SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS MORNING OUT OF THE REGION, WITH
WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN ADVISORY LEVEL AT LEAST UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE FOR MOST LOCATIONS, AND LINGERING A BIT LONGER TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST UNTIL LATE MORNING, WITH THE WIND ADVISORY REMAINING
IN EFFECT FOR THE IMPACTED AREAS. IN TERMS OF SNOW, WIDESPREAD
FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL IOWA EARLY ON HAVE BECOME VERY
ISOLATED, WITH VERY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS SEEN PER WEBCAMS ACROSS
THE AREA. LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR INDICATE THAT SOME ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED FLURRIES MAY OCCUR AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THEN
ENDING AS THE DRY AND COLD AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER, WITH EXPECTED
VALUES ONLY REACHING INTO THE 30S AND CLOUD COVER DECREASES, WHILE
WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH REMAINING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S. LARGE SCALE
RIDGING WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE MIDWEST FOR
THANKSGIVING, WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS ON THE QUIET SIDE BUT
CHILLY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
LOOKING AT THE CURRENT GUIDANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY GRADUALLY TRACKING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO AND THE DAKOTAS, WHICH CONTINUES TO BE OF
GROWING INTEREST TO MANY AS THIS FEATURE WILL ARRIVE INTO THE
MIDWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, LEADING TO AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS. LATEST TRENDS ARE SHOWING THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OCCURRING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY MORNING, THEN DROPPING GENERALLY SOUTH OF IOWA,
THOUGH THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL FEATURE GRADUALLY MOVES INTO
IOWA INTO SATURDAY. JUST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INTO IOWA, A
NOTABLE PUSH IN THETA-A ADVECTION FROM LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW
AND INCREASED FORCING IS EXPECTED. IN GENERAL, THE ONSET OF
INITIAL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON ARRIVAL
THAN WHAT SOME OF THE EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING, WITH
PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
LIFTS INTO IOWA. OVERALL, IOWA GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE COOL
SECTOR DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WARMING TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING INTO SATURDAY OVER SOUTHERN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA, SO
PRECIPITATION MAY STILL FALL AS A WINTRY MIX OVER THESE AREAS AT
TIMES. OTHERWISE, SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORM OF
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
(70-90%) FOR SNOWFALL ARRIVING FRIDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION
DEEPENS, WITH IOWA IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. LATEST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHER-END TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER IOWA, THOUGH LOOK TO EVEN BE BIT HIGHER IN
OVERALL PROBABILITIES. SPECIFICALLY, NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE HAVE A 90% OR HIGHER CHANCE FOR 4+ INCHES OF SNOW,
WITH 50% OR HIGHER VALUES NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR, AND
LESSER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW
CHANCES ARE INTRODUCED SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS
OUT YET, EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL MORE CERTAIN AND WILL
REALLY DEPEND ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, WHERE ANY
POSSIBLE SHIFT IN TRACK WOULD LEAD TO RATHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. THE KEY TAKEAWAY IS THAT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING BUT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, SO
PLEASE KEEP A CLOSE EYE FOR UPDATES AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY AS
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR.
LINGERING SNOW LOOKS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO SUNDAY, WHEN
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO DROP IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING TO END THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A FURTHER PLUNGE TO START THE MONTH OF
DECEMBER, WITH AVERAGE HIGHS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IN THE TEENS TO
20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN NEAR TO BELOW ZERO IN
SOME AREAS OVER NORTHERN IOWA. IT'S PRETTY SAFE TO SAY THAT THE COLD
SEASON IS OFFICIALLY HERE TO STAY FOR AWHILE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
MVFR CEILINGS AND STRONG, GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE
COMMON OVER CENTRAL IOWA LATE THIS EVENING. THERE IS AN AREA OF
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW MOVING OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND THIS COULD
BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF HIGHER END IFR RESTRICTIONS, MOST LIKELY
TO MCW. FOD HAS HAD A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWERED VISIBILITY DUE TO
THIS LIGHT SNOW AND HAVE NOW INCLUDED A PREVAILING LINE AT ALO
WITH WHAT SEEMS LIKE A HIGHER THAN PROB30 OCCURRENCE. DSM MAY
SEE A FEW FLURRIES, BUT WITH NO IMPACT TO THE TERMINAL. ALL THE
PRECIPITATION PUSHES EAST BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR
CEILINGS GIVING WAY TO CLEARING AND VFR CONDITIONS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS FORECAST TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR IAZ004>006-
015-016-023>025-034>037-045>050-059>062-072>075-083>086-
094>097.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ007-017-
026>028-038-039.
DISCUSSION...BURY
AVIATION...ANSORGE
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