243
FXUS63 KDMX 270442
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1042 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THANKSGIVING AND THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
- SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD IMPACTFUL SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH TRAVEL
IMPACTS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
- BITTER COLD SETTLES IN SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN BREEZY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO COME DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO START OFF THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUD
COVER INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE PATTERN AND SYSTEM EVOLUTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REMAINS
REMARKABLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO (AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES), BOTH WITH EACH OTHER AND WITH THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS.
WHILE THIS DOES LEND ITSELF TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTFUL
WINTRY WEATHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL DAYS
FOR THE SYSTEM TRACK CHANGE AND IT IS IMPORTANT TO BE READY FOR
THOSE CHANGES. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UNDERGO LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ON FRIDAY. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS IOWA
WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING LIFTING ACROSS IOWA LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THIS TAPS
INTO DEEP GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA TO QUICKLY
SATURATE SOUNDING PROFILES. THERE IS GOOD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FIRST ROUND WITH AROUND -15 TO -20 MICROBARS THROUGH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN A
WIDESPREAD 2-5+" OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN TO CENTRAL IOWA BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE IOWA/MISSOURI
BORDER ON SATURDAY WITH THE NORTHERN DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP
ACROSS IOWA. THIS WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW END
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. YESTERDAY'S MODEL RUNS INDICATED THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE DRY SLOT WOULD RESULT IN LOSS OF ICE
INTRODUCTION ALOFT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME ON SATURDAY IN SOUTHERN
IOWA, HOWEVER THIS CONCERN HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUNDINGS
ARE NOW FULLY SATURATED THROUGH THE DGZ AND ABOVE. THERE IS
STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN FAR SOUTHERN IOWA
WHERE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS SECOND ROUND WILL BRING SEVERAL ADDITIONAL
INCHES OF SNOW TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL
IN ALL, BOTH ROUNDS COMBINED HAVE A 80-90% CHANCE OF 4+ INCHES
OF SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 AND 75% CHANCE OF 8+ INCHES OF
SNOW FOR HIGHWAY 30 AND NORTH. EXPECT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
BEGINNING LATER FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. IMPACT COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS SNOW COMES TO AN
END.
EVEN COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THIS ON SUNDAY AND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S ON SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
MVFR STRATUS HAS BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE THAN ANY GUIDANCE WOULD
HAVE INDICATED IMPACTING MCW AND ALO AS FORECAST, BUT IT DID
EXPAND FAR ENOUGH AS FOD. HAVE CONTINUED USING MORE
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS FOR THE FORECAST, WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
CLEARING BY BEFORE SUNRISE AT MCW AND ALO. FOR FOD, THERE IS AN
UPSTREAM AREA OF STRATUS FEEDING DOWN THAT MAY KEEP RESTRICTIONS
PAST SUNRISE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM AT BEST. WHILE THERE
COULD BE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AT MCW OR ALO
TOWARD MIDDAY ON THANKSGIVING DAY, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. DSM AND OTM WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER DIMINISHING TONIGHT, WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL BECOME BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...ANSORGE
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