953
FXUS63 KDMX 190449
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1049 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, SLOWLY DECREASING THROUGH TONIGHT.
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND EVEN WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
IOWA.
- MILD AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
A STRONG AND DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
MIDWEST TODAY, WITH THE FIRST FRONT OUT OF IOWA AND NOW INTO EASTERN
ILLINOIS, WHILE THE SECONDARY FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS IOWA
THAT HAS BROUGHT WITH AND BEHIND IT AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MOST NOTABLE ASPECT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG WINDS THAT HAVE OVERSPREAD THE GREATER MAJORITY OF IOWA AS OF
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED 30-35 MPH WINDS AND GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 45-50 MPH WITH ISOLATED 55 TO EVEN 60 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES
OVER NORTHERN TO CENTRAL IOWA. THESE HIGHER END GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
TO OCCUR ON AN ISOLATED BASIS YET THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST BUT REMAINING BREEZY.
REGARDING THE SNOW, THOUGH AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN VERY MINIMAL SO FAR,
THE STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN LOWERING VISIBILITIES QUITE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER NORTHERN AND ESPECIALLY NORTHWESTERN IOWA,
WITH VALUES DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS THAN HAVE LED TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. ROADS HAVE BEEN DEEMED IMPASSABLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA PER THE DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION,
WHICH EXTENDS INTO ESTHERVILLE AND EMMETSBURG LIKELY DUE TO
THESE CONDITIONS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
TOP TWO TIERS OF THE DMX CWA THAT HIGHLIGHTS THE EXPECTED
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO THESE CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9PM UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST INTO CENTRAL IOWA, A BAND OF MORE ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW FROM
GRUNDY COUNTY DOWN TO UNION/DECATUR COUNTIES, PAIRED WITH THESE
HIGHER GUSTS SO FAR HAVE LED TO VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3-4 MILES
GENERALLY WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF 1 MILE VALUES. AS THIS
BAND GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING, VISIBILITY DROPS MAY CONTINUE TO OCCUR AT
TIMES WITH THE LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG WINDS, LEADING TO PERIODS
OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS TO
HIGHLIGHT THESE CONDITIONS. CLOSE MONITORING OF CONDITIONS AND
LIMITING TRAVEL WOULD BE IDEAL UNTIL THE WINDS DECREASE LATER
THIS EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT WEST OF
I-35 UNTIL 9PM TONIGHT, AND AT MIDNIGHT EAST OF I-35.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS DEPART AND WINDS REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS NORTH AND IN THE TEENS SOUTH. FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY
WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING INTO IOWA, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO MORE MILD VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S NORTHEAST
TO UPPER 30S SOUTHWEST. BY SATURDAY MORNING, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
RELATION TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST TO CANADA PER
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO DROP INTO NORTHERN IOWA, THOUGH MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY LOOKS QUITE LIMITED SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO
REMAIN. AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS EASTWARD LATER IN THE DAY,
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE CHILLY
AGAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE AS LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS, WHILE
SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL BE IN THE 20S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUNDAY
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS IOWA.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES LARGE SCALE RIDGING TO TAKE OVER FOR
MUCH OF THE CONUS, WITH GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDWEEK, INCLUDING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND EVEN LOW 50S, WHICH INCLUDE
CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS AS THE THERMAL RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF A FEW WEAK WAVES IN THE LARGER
SCALE FLOW HINTING AT SOME COVERAGE INTO IOWA PER GFS, THOUGH THE
EURO KEEPS THE AREA DRY UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK, SO CERTAINLY SOME
DETAILS TO KEEP A CASUAL EYE ON BUT NOT SEEING ANY STRONG SIGNAL FOR
IMPACTFUL WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY OUTSIDE OF THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
MVFR CIGS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WIND AND
A RETURN TO VFR. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY ON
FRIDAY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ007-017-
026>028-037>039-049-050-061-062-074-075-084>086-095>097.
DISCUSSION...BURY
AVIATION...DONAVON
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