860
FXUS63 KDMX 200440
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1040 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCE (<20%) OF SNOW SATURDAY MORNING IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH STRONGER WARMING
MONDAY AND BEYOND. APPROACH RECORD HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS.
- FOG POTENTIAL IN NORTHERN IOWA ON THE UPCOMING WEEKDAY NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD FAVORS A WARMING TREND, BUT
WE'LL HAVE A FROPAS TO GET THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE WE SEE THE
REAL WARMING TREND IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
HAVE ALREADY STARTED TODAY, SOME OF THAT FLOW TRANSLATING TO THE
SURFACE NEAR THE MO RIVER. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
OVERNIGHT FOR THE SOUTH/WEST. LOWS IN THE SNOWPACKED AREAS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ARE AT THE MERCY OF CLOUD COVER. THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL BUILD LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER. A COLD
FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE STATE IN THE MORNING AND WILL HAVE A
GLANCING BLOW OF LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHERN IOWA, BUT THE SNOW WILL BE
TRANSIENT ENOUGH THAT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LITTLE TO NONE. SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT DWINDLES AS THE FRONT SINKS INTO IOWA THROUGH THE MORNING,
SO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASES WITH TIME. HIGH PRESSURE AND
CLEAR SKIES FOLLOW THAT NIGHT. THE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT MEAN THAT
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE WILL AGAIN HAVE A COLD NIGHT WITH
SINGLE DIGIT LOWS. WAA MAKES ANOTHER RESURGENCE SUNDAY BEHIND
THE SURFACE HIGH. ITS LINGERING PRESENCE WILL KEEP SNOWPACK OVER
NORTHERN IOWA A LITTLE LONGER BECAUSE WET BULBS WILL LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL MAKE A SECOND
APPROACH AT THE STATE MONDAY, STARTING WITH A ROUND OF THETA-E
ADVECTION. THAT TRANSLATES TO CLOUD COVER IN IOWA AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE NORTH OF IOWA. THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS COULD BE WINDOWS FOR SOME FOG OVER THE FRESH
SNOWMELT IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. ANOTHER BRIEF PUSH OF MOISTURE
WEDNESDAY BRINGS LOW (<20%) CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR
EASTERN IOWA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK,
PEAKING RIGHT AT CHRISTMAS TIME. THERE IS A >50% CHANCE THAT
SOUTHERN IOWA WILL REACH 60 DEGREES BY CHRISTMAS DAY. THIS IS THANKS
TO THE EML THAT SETS UP ALOFT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AT OR
EXCEEDING 15 DEGREES C. THIS FAR OUT, WE ARE ALREADY FORECASTING
NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR CITIES SUCH AS OTTUMWA AND DES MOINES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. A STRONG
50+ KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 2K FEET AGL WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN PERIOD OF LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 10-15Z SHIFTING
SFC WINDS FROM SLY TO NWLY. A NARROW REGION OF LOWER VFR CIGS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY LOWER CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION. NORTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, AND MAY BECOME GUSTY FROM 15-25 KTS
AT TIMES.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FOWLE
AVIATION...JIMENEZ
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