695
FXUS63 KDMX 212326
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
526 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMUP CONTINUES TOMORROW WITH FOG LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
ACROSS THE SNOW PACK NORTH. SNOW MELT WILL BE COMMON MONDAY AS
WELL.
- LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (<15%) ON WEDNESDAY.
- MILD CHRISTMAS AHEAD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
DRY CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW MADE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF
OVERPERFORMING HIGHS ON DRY GROUND. MID TO UPPER 40S COULD BE
FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
30MPH. WAA CONTINUES OVERNIGHT, INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVER THE
STATE EARLY MONDAY. ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION STILL APPEARS
TO FOCUS NORTH OF THE STATE; LOW LEVEL SATURATION STRUGGLES THIS
FAR SOUTH. STILL RAISED HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE (LEANING 75TH
PERCENTILE) BUT WAS MORE CONSERVATIVE DUE TO INCREASING DEW
POINTS INHIBITING MIXING. HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL ALSO TRANSLATE
TO MELTING SNOW AND LIKELY ADVECTION FOG AS THE SUN SETS MONDAY.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY AND
ENFORCE COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW, DAMPENING HIGHS SLIGHTLY. A
SHORTWAVE ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY FEATURE STRATUS FOR
SOME OF THE STATE INTO CHRISTMAS, MAINLY IN NORTHERN IOWA. THERE
COULD STILL BE 60 DEGREE HIGHS IN SOUTHERN IOWA ON CHRISTMAS
DAY, BUT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS FROM NBM ARE BEING MADE ELSEWHERE
TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER. SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL REMAIN
A FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STRENGTHENING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF 35-40 KT LLWS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WHICH IS
INCLUDED IN THE 00Z TAFS ACCORDINGLY.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JIMENEZ
AVIATION...LEE
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