984
FXUS63 KDMX 041013
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
413 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR
NORTH/NORTHEAST IOWA TODAY.
- AREAS OF FOG, PERHAPS DENSE, ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
- GENERALLY WARMER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THIS MORNING WITH AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING
WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THE INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT, THE WIND REMAINS QUITE LIGHT THOUGH IT IS TURNING
MORE SOUTHERLY OVER WESTERN IOWA. THE PESKY STRATUS THAT HAS
SEEMINGLY BEEN OVER IOWA FOR DAYS REMAINS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST
THIRD OF THE STATE. THE STRATUS LAYER STEERING FLOW IS BEGINNING TO
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS WELL OVER WESTERN IOWA AND THAT IS HELPING
THE CLEARING LINE TO LIFT NORTH AS WELL.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE IS MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING EVEN MORE SOUTHERLY OVER IOWA
AND PUSH THE STRATUS NORTH/NORTHEAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY AND VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE AS THE STRATUS LIFTS WITH SOME WEAK
LIFT WITHIN A MARGINALLY DEEP SATURATION LAYER OF 3500FT OR LESS.
WHILE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF IOWA, A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST
PART OF THE AREA. IF THIS DOES DEVELOP, LOCALIZED ICING ON
ROADWAYS/SIDEWALKS COULD OCCUR. DESPITE THE STRATUS LAYER LIFTING
NORTH, THERE WILL BE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER IOWA BEFORE
THINNING FROM WEST TO EAST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. ANY AREAS THAT DO HAVE SOME SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE 40S.
THE WARMER AIR OVER IOWA WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A LARGER SYSTEM AND LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THAT WARMER AIR, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH OF IT WILL BE REALIZED IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. A
STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL SET UP TONIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW
BENEATH IT. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THIS INVERSION AND IF IT
DOES DEVELOP, IT IS POSSIBLE IT LINGERS WELL INTO MONDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA. A SHORT WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BUT AGAIN, ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS NEAR RECORD HIGHS.
THAT SAID, MODELS DO NOT DO WELL WITH STRATUS IN THESE SITUATIONS
MORE THAN 2 DAYS OUT SO WE WILL SEE. STILL MONITORING THE LARGER
SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK BUT A VAST AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE COOLER ON
SATURDAY BUT THAT MAY BE BRIEF.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE PUSHED BACK OVER ALL THE TERMINALS WITH DSM
AND OTM NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS LATE THIS
EVENING. A SHORT PERIOD OF HIGHER END IFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST AT FOD AND MCW AROUND SUNRISE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE, THE CLOUDS AND RESTRICTIONS WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD AND AFTER SUNRISE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST YIELDING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. AS
STRONGER WINDS NEAR FL020 DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS, THIS WILL BRING A SHORT WINDOW OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR TO THE TERMINALS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS, BUT THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DONAVON
AVIATION...ANSORGE
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