698
FXUS63 KDMX 041729
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1129 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR
NORTH/NORTHEAST IOWA TODAY.
- AREAS OF FOG, PERHAPS DENSE, ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
- GENERALLY WARMER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THIS MORNING WITH AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING
WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THE INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT, THE WIND REMAINS QUITE LIGHT THOUGH IT IS TURNING
MORE SOUTHERLY OVER WESTERN IOWA. THE PESKY STRATUS THAT HAS
SEEMINGLY BEEN OVER IOWA FOR DAYS REMAINS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST
THIRD OF THE STATE. THE STRATUS LAYER STEERING FLOW IS BEGINNING TO
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS WELL OVER WESTERN IOWA AND THAT IS HELPING
THE CLEARING LINE TO LIFT NORTH AS WELL.
A STRONG SHORT WAVE IS MOVING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING
ALONG WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY AND WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMING EVEN MORE SOUTHERLY OVER IOWA
AND PUSH THE STRATUS NORTH/NORTHEAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY AND VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE AS THE STRATUS LIFTS WITH SOME WEAK
LIFT WITHIN A MARGINALLY DEEP SATURATION LAYER OF 3500FT OR LESS.
WHILE THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF IOWA, A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST
PART OF THE AREA. IF THIS DOES DEVELOP, LOCALIZED ICING ON
ROADWAYS/SIDEWALKS COULD OCCUR. DESPITE THE STRATUS LAYER LIFTING
NORTH, THERE WILL BE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER IOWA BEFORE
THINNING FROM WEST TO EAST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL
HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. ANY AREAS THAT DO HAVE SOME SUNSHINE
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE 40S.
THE WARMER AIR OVER IOWA WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A LARGER SYSTEM AND LONG WAVE TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THAT WARMER AIR, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH OF IT WILL BE REALIZED IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. A
STEEP LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL SET UP TONIGHT WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW
BENEATH IT. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THIS INVERSION AND IF IT
DOES DEVELOP, IT IS POSSIBLE IT LINGERS WELL INTO MONDAY ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA. A SHORT WAVE ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BUT AGAIN, ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
OF THE AREA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE
SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS NEAR RECORD HIGHS.
THAT SAID, MODELS DO NOT DO WELL WITH STRATUS IN THESE SITUATIONS
MORE THAN 2 DAYS OUT SO WE WILL SEE. STILL MONITORING THE LARGER
SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK BUT A VAST AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE COOLER ON
SATURDAY BUT THAT MAY BE BRIEF.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
SEEING IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE
OUT. WILL SEE SURFACE WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING, THOUGH WIND
SHEAR INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, THEN DECREASE NEAR 06Z AS
WINDS BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND LIGHT. THIS TIME
PERIOD IS WHEN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH. IMPACTS FROM LOW CEILINGS LOOK TO BE CONFINED TO
NORTHERN IOWA WHERE MVFR AND EVEN PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AND EVEN POSSIBLE FOG, WHICH LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER
SOUTH AT KDSM AND KOTM WHERE MOISTURE PRESENCE IS LESS.
THEREFORE HAVE PUT FOG IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN SITES AT THIS
TIME,AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DONAVON
AVIATION...BURY
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