183
FXUS63 KDMX 050505
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1105 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, THEN AREAS OF FOG,
PERHAPS DENSE, ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
- MORE WIDESPREAD PATCHY TO DENSE FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, THEN A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FAR NORTH
(10% OR LESS)
- GENERALLY WARMER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
DRY WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH THICK CLOUD COVER REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN/EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHILE SKIES ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN IOWA, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR EASTWARDS INTO THIS
EVENING. A LOOK AT THE SURFACE MAP INDICATES THE WEAK SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE CLOUDS CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
FAR SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT WINTERY
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER MINNESOTA. WEAK RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN
OVER NORTHERN IOWA THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY WITH THIS SYSTEM'S
PASSAGE, THOUGH DRY AIR HAS LEAD TO VIRTUALLY NO PRECIPITATION TO
REACH THE GROUND. SOUNDINGS INDICATE ADDITIONAL DRYING YET THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH LIKELY IS DUE TO THE BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADING INTO THE
REGION. WINDS ARE BEHAVING GENERALLY AS FORECAST, WITH GUSTS
INCREASING TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS IOWA, HIGHEST NORTHWEST, WHILE
ESTHERVILLE AS HAD SOME ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS UP AROUND 35 KNOTS AT
TIMES. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON, TURNING LIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING AND GRADUALLY
SHIFTING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY
THE EVENING, CLEARING SKIES, LINGERING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER NORTHERN IOWA, AND LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO DEVELOPING PATCHY TO
LOCALLY DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING OVER NORTH TO
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH GIVEN SOME INDICATIONS OF LATEST GUIDANCE SO WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THIS CLOSELY.
MUCH OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY AS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS KEEP MILD
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WHILE GENERALLY QUIET,
IOWA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO WAVES AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DEPART EASTWARD, WHILE FURTHER WEST, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS DEVELOPS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW THAT IS SLATED TO PASS
OVER IOWA MONDAY EVENING TO TUESDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS WITH THIS
SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN IOWA IN THE MID LEVELS, THOUGH
THE HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS REMAIN CLOSER TO THE BAND OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS DEPICTED OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. A DEEPER DIVE INTO SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA SHOWS
SOME LOW LEVEL SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE BUT IS VERY THIN PER THE
RAP, WITH OTHERWISE PLENTY OF DRY AIR THAT WOULD SUGGEST SOME
DIFFICULTY FOR ANY GENERATED PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND,
WHILE THE NAM IS AT LEAST A BIT MORE SATURATION BELOW 1KM
THOUGH STILL LACKING ENOUGH DEPTH. WOULD FAVOR REMAINING WITH A
DRY FORECAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD GIVEN THESE LIMITING
FACTORS, THOUGH ANY SOUTHERN SHIFT WOULD LEAD TO BETTER
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH SO WILL MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW
FORECAST CYCLES. OTHERWISE, THE INDICATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL
SATURATION, ALONG WITH AN INCREASING SURFACE INVERSION AND LIGHT
WINDS IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PATCHY TO
DENSE FOG MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS SUCH AS THE HREF AND
HRRR INDICATE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO THESE CONDITIONS,
WITH VALUES NEAR TO BELOW A MILE FOR MANY LOCATIONS. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH MONDAY, ADDING FOG INTO THE FORECAST
AS THE LIKELIHOOD INCREASES.
ANY FOG GRADUALLY DEPARTS LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND ESPECIALLY BY THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES,
REPLACED BY PASSING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AS THE LARGE FLOW PATTERN
RETURNS MORE QUASI-ZONAL INTO MIDWEEK. STRATUS TUESDAY WILL LIKELY
BE SLOW TO EXIT, WHICH MAY PUT A DAMPER ON THE CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO 40S, SO EXPECT SOME NUDGING OF VALUES A BIT COOLER OVER THE NEXT
FEW FORECAST CYCLES. WEDNESDAY REMAINS MILD AND DRY WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS, ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 40S TO
MID 50S, WARMEST SOUTHWEST UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BY THURSDAY,
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH SOME INDICATION OF A
BOUNDARY SIGNALED TO CLIP NORTHERN IOWA QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING
PER GFS, THOUGH THE EURO IS MORE MUTED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM FURTHER
NORTH NOT IMPACTING THE REGION AT ALL. THEREFORE, KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE MOST NOTEWORTHY PERIOD OF INTEREST IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL
IMPACTFUL SYSTEMS IS THE DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT COULD BRING
MORE OF AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER INTO IOWA LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
PER GFS, THE TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CONUS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE GENERALLY
STAYING NOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF IOWA AS IT LOOKS TO TRACK
ACROSS ARKANSAS/MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH
IOWA NOW GENERALLY IN THE COOL SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM AND SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LOOKING TO FILL IN OVER SOUTH/EAST IOWA, THERE
STILL REMAINS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME WINTERY PRECIPITATION. AT
ABOUT THE SAME TIME, FURTHER NORTH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, ANOTHER
DEEPENING TROUGH LOOKS TO SINK INTO THE REGION, WITH A COOLER
AIRMASS MOVING IN JUST BEHIND THIS INTO SATURDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW SETTLES OVERHEAD. THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS THEN
GRADUALLY PHASE TOGETHER AS THEY DEPART TO THE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION, BECOMING ONE VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE
ATLANTIC SATURDAY. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES LATE
WEEK IS ONLY FROM ONE SOLUTION AS MENTIONED (GFS), WHICH LOOKING
AT THE EURO INDICATES THE SOUTHERN TROUGH LOCATED MUCH FURTHER
NORTH, WITH THE WARM SECTOR REACHING INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO
FRIDAY AND MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
STATE. THEN SOLUTIONS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT BY
SATURDAY WITH THE PHASING OF SYSTEMS AND THE BRINGING OF COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION. THE VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS INTO THE LATE
WORK WEEK ARE NORMAL THIS FAR OUT AND WILL BECOME CLEARER IN THE
COMING DAYS AS MORE MODELS LATCH ONTO THIS TIME PERIOD, SO STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
AN OVERALL LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS CYCLE. CONTINUING TO
MONITOR STRATUS THAT IS STARTING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE IOWA
MINNESOTA BORDER. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT MCW WITH STRATUS
LIKELY REACHING THERE AND HAVE MAINTAINED FORECAST AT FOD/ALO
WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS. FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, BUT TO WHAT EXTENT THAT
WILL MOVE OR DEVELOP OVER IOWA IS A BIG QUESTION. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH IFR AT MCW WITH MVFR AT FOD/ALO FOR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS THAT STRATUS WILL STAY JUST
NORTH OF DSM WITH BOTH DSM AND OTM HAVING VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THAT IS WHEN WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
MAY RETURN AS STRATUS REDEVELOPS OR FOG FORMS.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BURY
AVIATION...ANSORGE
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