550
FXUS63 KDMX 051004
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
404 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDS AND FOG AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PERHAPS SOME
DRIZZLE SOUTH THIS EVENING.
- PERHAPS NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
- MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
NUMEROUS CHALLENGES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. A BROAD AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG IS DESCENDING
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE BUFFALO RIDGE AND INTO
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. THERE IS MORE PERSISTENT DENSE FOG UPSTREAM WITH
SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS NOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING
ESTHERVILLE AND ALGONA. THE IOWA DOT IS ALSO REPORTING SOME FROST ON
ROADWAYS INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. MAY STILL NEED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN IOWA THIS MORNING THOUGH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE VISIBILITIES HAVE OCCURRED RECENTLY AND WHILE THE FOG
IS MORE EXPANSIVE TO THE EAST OF ALGONA, VISIBILITIES IN THOSE AREAS
ARE ONE HALF MILE OR GREATER UNDER THE LOW STRATUS. GIVEN IT IS
UNDER THE STRATUS, CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAT THE VISIBILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER TO BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE. THE OTHER CONSIDERATION
TODAY IS HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW LONG WILL THE STRATUS PERSIST TODAY?
THIS MAY HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TODAY OVER NORTHERN IOWA.
AT THIS TIME, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THE STRATUS WILL PERSIST
WITH THE STEERING FLOW INITIALLY FROM THE NORTH THEN TURNING MORE
EASTERLY WHILE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL INVERSION EXISTS JUST ABOVE
THE STRATUS LAYER. ALSO OF NOTE, A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT BUT SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, ENOUGH DRY AIR
REMAINS IN THE 900-600 MB LAYER TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVER NORTH CENTRAL IOWA AND AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT THAT AREA
DRY.
FARTHER SOUTH, MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS AND
MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND LIFTING/EXPANDING RAPIDLY NORTH. THIS STRATUS
SHOULD REACH SOUTHERN IOWA IN SOME FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
DEEPEN TO NEAR 4 KFT. INCREASING VERTICAL ASCENT WITHIN THIS
SATURATED LAYER DUE TO THE THETA-E ADVECTION AND SUFFICIENT LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR >15 KTS MAY LEAD TO DRIZZLE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING THIS PERIOD SO AT LEAST ICING SHOULD
NOT BE A CONCERN. BETWEEN THE TWO STRATUS LAYERS NORTH/SOUTH, A VAST
AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STREAMING EAST OFF THE ROCKIEST TO
THE EAST AND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS IOWA TODAY. WHILE THIS CLOUD COVER
WOULD NOT BE QUITE AS DETRIMENTAL TO TEMPERATURES TODAY, OVERALL
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE BELOW GUIDANCE HIGHS.
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE/LIKELY TONIGHT AND THIS LEADS TO THE
QUESTION AGAIN FOR TUESDAY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY ANY FOG/STRATUS
WILL ERODE. WEDNESDAY REMAINS THE DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
SUNSHINE AND GOOD MIXING LEADING TO NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. STILL MONITORING THE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS ARE STILL HAVING TROUBLE TRACKING THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS AND THEIR POTENTIAL MERGER OVER
THE REGION LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT SOLUTIONS TO CONTINUE
TO BOUNCE AROUND THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY SNOW LINGERING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER ON SATURDAY. THE NBM TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY ARE LIKELY WAY TOO WARM GIVEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED
OVER THE AREA THAT DAY AND THE COLD AIR DRAINING SOUTHWARD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
AN OVERALL LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS CYCLE. CONTINUING TO
MONITOR STRATUS THAT IS STARTING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE IOWA
MINNESOTA BORDER. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT MCW WITH STRATUS
LIKELY REACHING THERE AND HAVE MAINTAINED FORECAST AT FOD/ALO
WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS. FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA, BUT TO WHAT EXTENT THAT
WILL MOVE OR DEVELOP OVER IOWA IS A BIG QUESTION. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH IFR AT MCW WITH MVFR AT FOD/ALO FOR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS THAT STRATUS WILL STAY JUST
NORTH OF DSM WITH BOTH DSM AND OTM HAVING VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THAT IS WHEN WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
MAY RETURN AS STRATUS REDEVELOPS OR FOG FORMS.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DONAVON
AVIATION...ANSORGE
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