509
FXUS63 KDMX 072015
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
215 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS NEARING 60
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
- EFFICIENT RAIN UP TO AN INCH THURSDAY, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
ON THE BACK SIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
A DICHOTOMOUS TEMPERATURE PLOT IS ON DISPLAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST PUSHING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. IN THE NORTHEAST, FOG
AND STRATUS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN AGAIN TODAY WITH MOST COVERED SITES
STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AT 1PM. A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF WARMING SHOULD
HELP LIFT THIS AREA INTO THE LOW 40S. THE RECORD HIGH STILL LOOKS TO
BE CHALLENGED TODAY FOR DES MOINES.
A PLETHORA OF MOISTURE IS ON APPROACH FOR TOMORROW. 1" PWATS WILL
RESIDE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR
7 C/KM THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST, SO A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT. LOW CAPE AND A LOW-LEVEL STABLE LAYER
KEEPS SEVERE WEATHER OUT OF THE EQUATION. THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
WILL, HOWEVER, BE A DRIVING FACTOR FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL.
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OVER A HALF INCH LIKELY FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 20
AND SOUTH, WITH 1 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AS THE
SUN SETS TOMORROW, THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW ON THE WESTERN EDGE,
AFFECTING MOSTLY NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST IOWA. CROSS SECTIONS HAVE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LIFT WHILE PRECIPITATION IS RAIN, HOWEVER THE
OVERLAP BETWEEN THE KINEMATICS AND THE SNOW-FAVORED THERMALS IS
FLEETING. WHERE AND WHEN THEY DO OVERLAP, A QUICK (1-3 HOUR)
SNOWFALL OF 1-2" WILL BE POSSIBLE, LIKELY IN A NARROW CORRIDOR. THE
LOWER PROFILE IS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL AND JUST BELOW FREEZING, WHICH IS
THE SECONDARY DGZ FOR DENDRITES, THESE BEING MORE OF AN AGGREGATE
SNOW. THAT MEANS THE SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE WET, SLUSHY, AND
WEIGHTY. A DEGREE OR TWO CHANGE IN THIS LAYER DECIDES THE SPATIAL
EXTENT OF THIS SNOW. THE GFS SNOWFALL PLOT ON A MAP ILLUSTRATES THE
UNCERTAINTY WELL, AS IT DROPS QPF INTO RAIN AND SNOW BINS, LEAVING
SPLOTCHES OF A FEW INCHES OF SNOW RIGHT NEXT TO NONE.
SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND
WILL BE THE RESULT OF WHATEVER MOISTURE IS LEFT OVER. THE NEXT MAIN
ROUND OF PRECIP COMES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF TWO WAVES, ONE
NORTHERN AND ONE SOUTHERN STREAM. TRENDS HAVE FAVORED THE MOISTURE
AXIS GETTING PUSHED TO THE EAST BY THE SOUTHERN ONE, LOWERING QPF
AMOUNTS. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW, WITH ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING
UNDER 3 INCHES AT THIS TIME. LOW END POPS LINGER IN THE EAST
SATURDAY AS BOTH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE TROWAL, NEARBY FRONTS,
AND A CONVECTIVE PBL ARE IN PLAY. BRIEF RIDGING RECOVERS
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY, BUT NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS FAVORED NEXT WEEK
AND MAY HAVE PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE PNW TO WORK WITH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
FOG AND STRATUS ARE STARTING TO ERODE OVER KALO, SO KEPT LIFR
CIGS GOING FOR AN HOUR, BUT AN EXTENSION OF THE OVC DECK IS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, THE REMAINING SITES WILL BE VFR FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. RAIN ARRIVES LATE IN THE PERIOD FROM THE SOUTH,
AFFECTING KDSM AND KOTM THIS ISSUANCE.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JIMENEZ
AVIATION...JIMENEZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page