288
FXUS63 KDMX 081019
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
419 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVING TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST WITH A NON-ZERO SEVERE THREAT FAR
SOUTHEAST.
- RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL
IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF A
WET AND HEAVY 1-3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
- COLDER WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 416 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
LEE SIDE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST THROUGH KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ONGOING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH A MASS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM
THE GULF. A SECOND AND STRONG SHORT WAVE IS LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS THIS MORNING. THAT SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
A REORGANIZATION OF THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS
THIS MORNING THEN IT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE THE MOISTURE TO SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO IOWA AS THIS OCCURS AND THIS WILL BRING A BROAD RAIN
SHIELD NORTH INTO THE STATE. IN ADDITION, PERIODS WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON THAT
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. CURRENTLY THERE ARE TWO
CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. WHILE
THE OVERALL INSTABILITY IS WEAKENING AS IT ARRIVES INTO THE STATE,
THERE REMAIN PERIODS OF FREE VERTICAL ASCENT BY UNINHIBITED MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. THERE REMAINS A LOW POTENTIAL/SHORT TIME
WINDOW DURATION FOR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MID AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SHOULD THIS INSTABILITY BE REALIZED, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH MODERATE TO HIGH LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AVAILABLE AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL AS
THE TRIPLE POINT LIFTS THROUGH. SUNSHINE WOULD'T BE REQUIRED AS THE
DEW POINT SURGE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE THIS SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.
AS MENTIONED IN OUR LAST SEVERAL FORECAST DISCUSSIONS, WHILE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AND AREAS MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR
MORE, FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. THE 7 INCH FROST DEPTH MEASURED HERE
AT THE OFFICE WAS COMPLETELY GONE LAST NIGHT AND ANY REMAINING FROST
AT AREAS NORTH SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE RAINFALL. CERTAINLY
PONDING OF WATER IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO THIS OCCURRING. THE GREATER
CONCERN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN
TO SNOW OVER NORTHWEST IOWA. CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
GETTING MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW INTO THE GRIDS WITH THIS
EVENING, EITHER USING THE TOP DOWN APPROACH OR UTILIZING SURFACE
WETBULB TEMPERATURES ASSUMING NO WARM LAYERS ALOFT. PART OF THIS
DIFFICULTY IS DETERMINING THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE RAIN
TO SNOW TRANSITION THEN THE DRY AIR SURGE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL CUT THE PRECIPITATION OFF. THERE IS LIKELY TO
BE A SWEET SPOT WHERE SNOW CAN ESTABLISH FOR SEVERAL HOURS RESULTING
IN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. ALSO AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED, THE SNOW
CRYSTAL MORPHOLOGY SUGGESTS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF LARGE AND WET
AGGREGATE SNOW FLAKES THAT COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO SLICK AND HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS. SHOULD THIS SNOW EXCEED 3 INCHES, THEN WE START
TO BE CONCERNED WITH TREE LIMB DAMAGE AND SUBSEQUENT POWER OUTAGES.
AGAIN, SHOULD THAT OCCUR, IT SHOULD BE A VERY NARROW CORRIDOR. AT
THIS POINT, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO TARGET A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY.
LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS LOW
AS THE GULF MOISTURE IS SHUNTED EAST WITH THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. STILL
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER CLOSED LOW DESCENDING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO A
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY AND PERHAPS SNOW SHOWERS AS SOME
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY EXISTS BUT AGAIN LIMITED MOISTURE. GUSTY WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THE NBM CONTINUES TO HAVE TROUBLE HANDLING THIS
COLDER AIR AND THE TIMING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVAL ON
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR ALL BUT KMCW, WHERE A SHALLOW FOG IS
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TONIGHT. THIS FOG
WILL LIKELY BE TRANSIENT, RESULTING IN PRIMARILY 3 TO 5 SM
VISIBILITIES, BUT BRIEF VISIBILITIES UNDER 2 SM MAY DEVELOP.
RAIN MOVES IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH MID-DAY TODAY,
BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FALLING INTO
MVFR THEN IFR WITH CEILINGS UNDER 1000FT. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
FLIP FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH BREEZY WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH. AS THIS
OCCURS, SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH RAIN, PRIMARILY IN THE
NORTHWEST NEAR KFOD.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DONAVON
AVIATION...DODSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page