898
FXUS63 KDMX 082051
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
251 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CONTINUES TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG, MAINLY BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS.
- RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN
IOWA. A NARROW BAND OF 1-3" OF WET SNOW POSSIBLE, LEADING TO
SLICK ROADS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE TRENDED DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT (<30%).
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
MAINLY NORTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WAS PIVOTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ITS
DRY SLOT WAS PUNCHING INTO THE WARM SECTOR INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI,
BRINGING AN INTERMISSION TO RAIN CHANCES INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON IS UNDERPERFORMING COMPARED TO
THE HREF OUTPUT FROM 12Z. THE TRIPLE POINT THAT WAS A CONCERN AHEAD
OF TODAY HAS BEEN UNDERGOING OCCLUSION IN NORTHERN MO WITH THE MAIN
INSTABILITY AXIS GETTING SHOVED AWAY FROM THE STATE. FURTHER TO THE
WEST WAS THE DEFORMATION ZONE NEAR THE LOW'S CENTER WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KANSAS. THE NSE FOR THESE HAS TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S, BUT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
A LOWER PROFILE ALREADY UNDERCUT BY THE MAIN FRONT OUT AHEAD. ENOUGH
DESTABILIZATION COULD OCCUR FOR A WINDOW OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHERN IOWA, MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7PM. GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR IN
A STRONGER STORM, BUT THE UNIDIRECTIONAL HODOGRAPHS DECREASE
CONFIDENCE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL.
AS THE MAIN LOW CROSSES THE STATE THIS EVENING, PRECIPITATION WILL
START TO TRANSITION TO SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE. THE LOW LEVEL
WARM LAYER CONTINUES TO BRING A CHALLENGE TO THE SNOW FORECAST WITH
WET AGGREGATE SNOW FORMING WHERE THE PROFILE IS JUST BELOW FREEZING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TEETER BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW BINS TODAY, SO HAVE
OPTED FOR A MORE BROAD APPROACH TO AT LEAST GET 1" SNOW MENTIONS IN
NORTHERN IOWA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
PRESENTED, BUT THERE MAY BE A NARROW BAND AHEAD OF THE DRY AIR
THAT CAN QUICKLY CRANK OUT 1-3" OF HEAVY, WET SNOW. CAA AND
SUBSIDENCE MIXED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH (LIMITED BY THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER).
LITTLE CONCERN FOR BLOWING SNOW DUE TO THE HIGH SLRS. DRYING
WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, CONCLUDING THIS
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA.
FRIDAY NIGHT'S PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN IN
SOUTHERN IOWA AS THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL POINT ELSEWHERE IN THE
CONUS. WHAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS WHAT MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE FOR THE PASSING FRONTS IN NORTHERN IOWA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY LINGERING HCRS SATURDAY.
SNOW SHOWERS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITES MAY RESULT.
AFTER A COLDER WEEKEND, A THERMAL RIDGE BRINGS 40 DEGREE HIGHS BACK
TO START NEXT WEEK, BUT THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WARRANTS THE
WINDOWS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
ADJUSTED TIME FOR RAIN ARRIVAL AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM IT.
ALSO ADDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KOTM. LLWS WILL
ALSO OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES JUST
WEST OF THE SITE. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW HAPPENS EARLIER FOR
NORTHERN SITES, OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z AND 4Z FOR KFOD AND KMCW
(LATER AT KALO). 25KT GUSTS WILL ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE
NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL. SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
AFTER 12Z IN THE WEST.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JIMENEZ
AVIATION...JIMENEZ
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