717
FXUS63 KDMX 082334
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
534 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CONTINUES TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG, MAINLY BRINGING
GUSTY WINDS.
- RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN
IOWA. A NARROW BAND OF 1-3" OF WET SNOW POSSIBLE, LEADING TO
SLICK ROADS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE TRENDED DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT (<30%).
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
MAINLY NORTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WAS PIVOTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ITS
DRY SLOT WAS PUNCHING INTO THE WARM SECTOR INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI,
BRINGING AN INTERMISSION TO RAIN CHANCES INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON IS UNDER PERFORMING COMPARED
TO THE HREF OUTPUT FROM 12Z. THE TRIPLE POINT THAT WAS A
CONCERN AHEAD OF TODAY HAS BEEN UNDERGOING OCCLUSION IN NORTHERN
MO WITH THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS GETTING SHOVED AWAY FROM THE
STATE. FURTHER TO THE WEST WAS THE DEFORMATION ZONE NEAR THE
LOW'S CENTER WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KANSAS. THE
NSE FOR THESE HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S, BUT WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A LOWER PROFILE ALREADY
UNDERCUT BY THE MAIN FRONT OUT AHEAD. ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION
COULD OCCUR FOR A WINDOW OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IOWA,
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 7PM. GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR IN A STRONGER
STORM, BUT THE UNIDIRECTIONAL HODOGRAPHS DECREASE CONFIDENCE IN
TORNADO POTENTIAL.
AS THE MAIN LOW CROSSES THE STATE THIS EVENING, PRECIPITATION WILL
START TO TRANSITION TO SNOW ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE. THE LOW LEVEL
WARM LAYER CONTINUES TO BRING A CHALLENGE TO THE SNOW FORECAST WITH
WET AGGREGATE SNOW FORMING WHERE THE PROFILE IS JUST BELOW FREEZING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TEETER BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW BINS TODAY, SO HAVE
OPTED FOR A MORE BROAD APPROACH TO AT LEAST GET 1" SNOW MENTIONS IN
NORTHERN IOWA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
PRESENTED, BUT THERE MAY BE A NARROW BAND AHEAD OF THE DRY AIR
THAT CAN QUICKLY CRANK OUT 1-3" OF HEAVY, WET SNOW. CAA AND
SUBSIDENCE MIXED WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH (LIMITED BY THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER).
LITTLE CONCERN FOR BLOWING SNOW DUE TO THE HIGH SLRS. DRYING
WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, CONCLUDING THIS
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA.
FRIDAY NIGHT'S PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN IN
SOUTHERN IOWA AS THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL POINT ELSEWHERE IN THE
CONUS. WHAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS WHAT MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE FOR THE PASSING FRONTS IN NORTHERN IOWA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY LINGERING HCRS SATURDAY.
SNOW SHOWERS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITES MAY RESULT.
AFTER A COLDER WEEKEND, A THERMAL RIDGE BRINGS 40 DEGREE HIGHS BACK
TO START NEXT WEEK, BUT THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WARRANTS THE
WINDOWS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN IOWA IS
ROTATING OVER THE STATE WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR
RESTRICTIONS COMMON AT THE TERMINALS. REMOVED OTM'S PROB30 FOR
THUNDER AS MUCH OF THE LIGHTNING HAS REMAINS ALONG OR SOUTH OF
36 HIGHWAY IN MISSOURI. THE PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AT MOST TERMINALS FOR
AT LEAST A SHORT DURATION IF NOT A BIT LONGER (E.G. FOD) BEFORE
ENDING. WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BECOME FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TURN
GUSTY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS COMMON TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF
DAYLIGHT FRIDAY AND MID-CLOUDS WILL RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JIMENEZ
AVIATION...ANSORGE
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