104
FXUS63 KDMX 161144
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
544 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S-60S THOUGH HIGHS IN SOUTHWEST IOWA
COULD REACH INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY. SOME TEMPERATURE RECORDS
MAY ALSO BE CHALLENGED TODAY. SEE CLIMATE SECTION.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT MORE SO TUESDAY WITH STRONGER WINDS FORECAST,
THOUGH ALSO MORE CLOUD COVER.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS (25-45% CHANCE) TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
- COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DETAILS TO COME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH OR AS QUICKLY EARLY THIS
MORNING THAN IN PAST NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES AROUND 3 AM WERE IN
THE UPPER 30S TO 40S WHICH IS ACTUALLY NEAR TO ABOVE OUR NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MID FEBRUARY! WITH SOME CLEAR PATCHES
NOTED ON SATELLITE, TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY STILL BE
ABLE TO DROP OFF A FAIR AMOUNT INTO DAYBREAK, BUT SOME HIGH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD BE CHALLENGED THIS MORNING. A
FEW PATCHES OF FOG HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP IN MAINLY NORTHEAST
IOWA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR BUT STRONGER SURFACE FLOW SHOULD
REALLY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS WHERE
CLEARING OCCURS IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA. IN SAYING THIS,
SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY NORTH,
AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH A RUN AT SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK WITH A RUN AT EVEN THE LOW 70S IN THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST TUESDAY. RECORD TEMPERATURES TUESDAY/17TH ARE ALL
HIGHER THAN TODAY/16TH AND THUS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE CHALLENGED
DESPITE THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO EVEN 70!
BESIDES THE WARMTH, INCREASED MIXING WILL LEAD TO SOME BREEZY
WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY SOUTH, WHICH MAY RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT A BIT, BUT SOME
CLEARING/THINNING OF THE CLOUDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON PAIRED WITH
THE DRY FUELS AND DRY CONDITIONS COULD EASILY PROMOTE FIRE
SPREAD SHOULD A FIRE START. THIS IS EVEN MORE TRUE ON TUESDAY
WHEN STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS GUSTS REACH TOWARDS 25-35
MPH+. MORE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HIGHER TUESDAY BUT CAUTION IS CERTAINLY ADVISED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, AS DETAILED
BELOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MADE FOR A PLEASANT SUNDAY ACROSS
THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF STRATUS/FOG IN NORTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS REPRESENTS WHERE OUR MOISTURE PLUME IS, AND IT
WILL BE ADVECTED IN ON THE LLJ TONIGHT. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
BRING IN A BLANKET OF STRATUS AND ACCOMPANYING FOG, STALLING
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH FOG
AND CLOUDS COULD BE A FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN THE WARM
SECTOR, THE LLJ WIND MAX CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY IN MISSOURI,
PRIMED FOR AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF MOISTURE AND STRATUS IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHANGE IS TO THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT.
SIMILAR ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE WARM FRONT LIES THEN.
EVENTUALLY, THE WARM FRONT WILL BE PICKED UP BY A SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES, LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. DEW
POINTS IN THE NBM ARE LIKELY RUNNING TOO HIGH IN THE SOUTH TUESDAY,
WHERE SOME CLEARING MAY ALLOW FOR BETTER MIXING AND DECREASING DEW
POINTS. THIS IS WHEN AND WHERE THE CHANCES FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE GREATEST. THE EML WILL REACH INTO IOWA, STEEPENING
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. A TREND THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE WAS A DELAY IN
THE OCCLUSION MENTIONED YESTERDAY, LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN
PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES RANGING FROM 7 TO 8 C/KM.
DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, THERE COULD BE MORE
CAPE AVAILABLE, INCREASING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE SPC HAS
A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK FOR MOST ALL OF IOWA.
A PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES BEHIND TUESDAY NIGHT'S SYSTEM. BROAD
TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN CONUS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR IN THE
PLAINS, DROPPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID FEBRUARY. LEE-
SIDE TROUGHING IS FAVORED IN THIS PATTERN, INDICATING AN ACTIVE
PATTERN. PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TO END THE WORK WEEK (30-40%
CHANCE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS AND INCREASED SURFACE FLOW HAS KEPT FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING AWAY FROM TAF SITES. MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS THE LLWS WHICH WILL
ABATE WITHIN A FEW HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN PREVALENT
TODAY INTO TOMORROW WITH SOME THINNING/CLEARING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST EARLY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA BUT WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN IOWA WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SELECT CENTRAL IOWA
CITIES ON MONDAY, FEBRUARY 16...
===========================================
| MONDAY | PERIOD
| FCST RECORD/ | OF
CITY | HIGH YEAR | RECORD
===========================================
MASON CITY 57 63/1981 1903-PRESENT
WATERLOO 61 62/1981 1895-PRESENT
DES MOINES 65 66/1981 1878-PRESENT
OTTUMWA 66 65/2017 1923-PRESENT
===========================================
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...JIMENEZ
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...LEE
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