993
FXUS63 KDMX 170456
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1056 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN IOWA TODAY DUE
TO WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IOWA, WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM AND WINDY WEATHER.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS, A FEW STORMS TUESDAY EVENING.
- WHILE IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM WEDNESDAY, DRIER AIR AND BREEZY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING
- TURNING BREEZIER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH MUCH COOLER,
SEASONAL CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE STATE, RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF WARMING TO
GO. GOES-EAST IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW STREAKS OF HIGH CLOUDS, BUT
OTHERWISE THERE IS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE STATE. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS AND MAINLY IN SOUTHERN IOWA TODAY,
DEWPOINTS HAVE LOWERED BELOW FORECAST AND WITH THE BREEZIER WINDS
THERE, HAS LED TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THERE HAVE BEEN
A HANDFUL OF SATELLITE DETECTED FIRES WITH THE MOST NOTABLE FIRE IN
FREMONT COUNTY WITH A SMOKE PLUME VISIBLE ON SATELLITE AT THIS HOUR.
AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THIS WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE TYPICAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MID FEBRUARY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. A FEW MODELS HAD SHOWN THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY, BUT THOSE MODELS HAVE LARGELY BACKED OFF
IN PART DUE TO DRY, LOW LEVEL AIR ALONG WITH WINDS THAT INCREASE
TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS LOW WILL COME ABOUT BY A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL KICK OUT AHEAD OF THE WESTERN US LONGWAVE
TROUGH ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW, THERE WILL BE A SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION THAT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH DEWPOINTS RISING 5 TO 10 DEGREES WELL INTO THE
40S TO EVEN LOW 50S IN SOUTHERN IOWA. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AS
MENTIONED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OCCURRING, BUT FAIRLY SHALLOW
(1000 TO 1500 FEET) WITH TOP OF MIXED LAYER WINDS BETWEEN 30 AND 40
MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS MAY SPORADICALLY NEAR 30 MPH AND WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY. WHILE THERE WILL BE CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING, THIS MIXING WOULD TAP
INTO 925MB TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SIMILAR IF NOT 1 TO 2 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN TODAY. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES MAKING A RUN INTO THE LOW 70S IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND THE
60S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT NORTHEASTERN IOWA. THERE ARE COMPETING
SCENARIOS FOR TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. ONE HAS LOW STRATUS MOVING IN
WITH THE NAM KEEPING CONDITIONS MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS MORE IN THE
50S AREAWIDE. THIS SEEMS LIKE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME AT THIS
POINT AND IF IT WERE TO OCCUR WOULD BE OVER NORTHERN AND POSSIBLY
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE OTHER SCENARIO IS THAT THE CLOUDS
MOVE OUT BY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN IOWA, AND THIS COULD YIELD DEEPER
MIXING AND THUS HIGHER TEMPERATURES, LOWER DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND STRONGER WINDS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THERE
HAVE BEEN PLENTY OF GRASS AND FIELD FIRES OVER THE LAST WEEK THAT
HAVE KEPT VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPARTMENTS BUSY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED OVER AT LEAST WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
IOWA AND OVERALL WINDY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO FAST FIRE SPREAD
DESPITE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 40 OR 50% ELSEWHERE IN THE
STATE.
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRACKS NEAR THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER, THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL IOWA TUESDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL BECOME A BIT MORE LIKELY AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA LATE EVENING INTO EASTERN IOWA IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
INSTABILITY. THE SAME SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND
750MB THAT MOISTENS AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STORMS NEAR A GIVEN
LOCATION. THIS DIMINISHES DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES RATHER QUICKLY. THE
ONLY THING NOTEWORTHY ON CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL (CAM) WIND GUST
FIELDS IS THE STRONGER WINDS ON THE EDGE OF THE MODEL REFLECTIVITY.
WE SAW THIS OCCUR BOTH IN MODEL AND REALITY LAST YEAR WHERE CAMS ARE
PICKING UP ON BREEZIER WINDS AS AIR SUBSIDES AROUND THE STORMS. ALL
LOOKS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS SO THE GENERAL THUNDER FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IS TRACKING WITH OUR LOCAL THOUGHTS.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN THEIR SLIDE TOWARD COOLER
CONDITIONS, BUT WILL STILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. BREEZY WINDS
WILL BE PRESENT, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA, AND WITH DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK,
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND AND ARRIVE AHEAD OF IT.
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER COLORADO AND MOVE EASTWARD
PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI OR SOUTHERN IOWA LATER
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW, MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, BUT AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT, THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS NOT LOCKED IN AND THUS BRINGS VARIABILITY
TO THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG WITH THERMAL
PROPERTIES OF THE PROFILE. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH SOME LEVEL OF
CONFIDENCE IS THAT THERE IS A WEATHER SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK
THAT WILL LIKELY CONTAIN WINTRY (RAIN/SNOW) PRECIPITATION WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOR IOWA IN SOME NORTHERN PORTION. HOW MUCH SNOW
REMAINS TO BE SEEN ON HOW THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE LOW
(PASSING THROUGH QUICKLY VS CLOSING OFF AND SLOWER) AND THIS CAN
VARY BY EACH MODEL AND WITHIN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE BREEZIER WINDS DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. FURTHER, MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS WILL SETTLE IN FOR FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SOME
STRATUS BECOMES POSSIBLE MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KMCW/KALO
LATER IN THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE HAVE ADDED SOME PROB30 GROUPS
FOR RAIN, HAVE NOT INTRODUCED THUNDER AT ANY SITES. MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON
TUESDAY. SOME AREAS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
FORECAST AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SELECT CENTRAL IOWA
CITIES ON MONDAY, FEBRUARY 16...
===========================================
| MONDAY | PERIOD
| FCST RECORD/ | OF
CITY | HIGH YEAR | RECORD
===========================================
MASON CITY 57 63/1981 1903-PRESENT
WATERLOO 61 62/1981 1895-PRESENT
DES MOINES 65 66/1981 1878-PRESENT
OTTUMWA 66 65/2017 1923-PRESENT
===========================================
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANSORGE
AVIATION...DONAVON
CLIMATE...LEE
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