345
FXUS63 KDMX 171750
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1150 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN IOWA, AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH WARM AND WINDY
WEATHER.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS, A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING.
- RAIN/SNOW POTENTIAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- INCREASING WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH COOLER, MORE SEASONAL, TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
FEW CHANGES TO THE BELOW. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
OVERACHIEVED AND DROPPED QUICKLY IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL IOWA, WHILE MAINTAINING WARMER/MORE STEADY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE ON THE CLOUD COVER/STRATUS HAS THE
CURRENT HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING CERTAINLY THIS MORNING AND ONLY
GRADUALLY CLEARING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
MEANWHILE, THE LOWER STRATUS LOOKS TO MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN IOWA. CLEARING POTENTIAL IS
THUS HIGHEST WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA. TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT LOOK TO BE WARMEST
SOUTHWEST AND COOLEST NORTHEAST WITH A RUN AT THE 70S FAR
SOUTHWEST, AND REMAINING IN THE 50S NORTHEAST, WITH 60S IN
BETWEEN. DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY, THE DEEPER
MIXING SCENARIO REMAINS IN PLAY, ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS NEAR CRITICAL VALUES GIVEN THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR LOWER DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES. IN SAYING THIS, THE EXPECTED
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ELEVATED MOST
EVERYWHERE AS WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BECOME
SUSTAINED 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH, NEARING BUT OVERALL
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY HAVE SPORADIC WINDS OR GUSTS
THAT TOP CRITERIA, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A WIND HEADLINE
AT THIS POINT BUT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
ALTHOUGH THE WINDS DROP OFF FOR A BIT AROUND SUNSET, THERE LOOKS
TO BE ANOTHER PUSH OF WINDS AROUND THE STORMS THIS EVENING (LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR MAY HELP AIDE) AS WELL AS INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST WINDS WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA AND WITH THE DRIER AIR NOTED (BELOW) THIS REALLY
CAUSES RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL BELOW FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WHICH PAIRED WITH THE WINDS, MAY LEAD TO
THE NEED FOR A FIRE HEADLINE WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT
COOLER, IN THE 50S TO 60S, CLOUD COVER MAY STILL BE AROUND,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH, AND ANY RAIN TONIGHT COULD DAMPEN FUELS A BIT,
SO WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY FOR ANY HEADLINE NEEDS
WEDNESDAY. FOR THE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING, MAINTAINED LOWER 20-30%
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH MOISTURE AND THUS COVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIME, BUT BEST CHANCES STILL LOOK FAR
NORTH/NORTHWEST OR EAST CENTRAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THIS WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE TYPICAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR MID FEBRUARY
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. A FEW MODELS HAD SHOWN THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY, BUT THOSE MODELS HAVE
LARGELY BACKED OFF IN PART DUE TO DRY, LOW LEVEL AIR ALONG WITH
WINDS THAT INCREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS IS
IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AHEAD OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS LOW WILL COME
ABOUT BY A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL KICK OUT AHEAD OF THE
WESTERN US LONGWAVE TROUGH ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW, THERE
WILL BE A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION THAT WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT WITH DEWPOINTS
RISING 5 TO 10 DEGREES WELL INTO THE 40S TO EVEN LOW 50S IN
SOUTHERN IOWA. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AS MENTIONED WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING OCCURRING, BUT FAIRLY SHALLOW (1000 TO 1500 FEET)
WITH TOP OF MIXED LAYER WINDS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. SUSTAINED
WINDS MAY SPORADICALLY NEAR 30 MPH AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY. WHILE THERE WILL BE CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING, THIS MIXING WOULD TAP INTO
925MB TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SIMILAR IF NOT 1 TO 2 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN TODAY. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES MAKING A RUN INTO THE LOW 70S IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND
THE 60S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT NORTHEASTERN IOWA. THERE ARE COMPETING
SCENARIOS FOR TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. ONE HAS LOW STRATUS MOVING
IN WITH THE NAM KEEPING CONDITIONS MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS MORE
IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. THIS SEEMS LIKE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY
OUTCOME AT THIS POINT AND IF IT WERE TO OCCUR WOULD BE OVER
NORTHERN AND POSSIBLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THE OTHER
SCENARIO IS THAT THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT BY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN
IOWA, AND THIS COULD YIELD DEEPER MIXING AND THUS HIGHER
TEMPERATURES, LOWER DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT RELATIVE HUMIDITY,
AND STRONGER WINDS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THERE HAVE BEEN
PLENTY OF GRASS AND FIELD FIRES OVER THE LAST WEEK THAT HAVE
KEPT VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPARTMENTS BUSY. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON
TUESDAY WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED OVER AT LEAST WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN IOWA AND OVERALL WINDY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO FAST
FIRE SPREAD DESPITE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 40 OR 50%
ELSEWHERE IN THE STATE.
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRACKS NEAR THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER, THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL IOWA TUESDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL BECOME A BIT MORE LIKELY AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA LATE EVENING INTO EASTERN IOWA IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF
INSTABILITY. THE SAME SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LAYER BETWEEN 900 AND
750MB THAT MOISTENS AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STORMS NEAR A GIVEN
LOCATION. THIS DIMINISHES DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES RATHER QUICKLY. THE
ONLY THING NOTEWORTHY ON CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL (CAM) WIND GUST
FIELDS IS THE STRONGER WINDS ON THE EDGE OF THE MODEL REFLECTIVITY.
WE SAW THIS OCCUR BOTH IN MODEL AND REALITY LAST YEAR WHERE CAMS ARE
PICKING UP ON BREEZIER WINDS AS AIR SUBSIDES AROUND THE STORMS. ALL
LOOKS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS SO THE GENERAL THUNDER FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IS TRACKING WITH OUR LOCAL THOUGHTS.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN THEIR SLIDE TOWARD COOLER
CONDITIONS, BUT WILL STILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. BREEZY WINDS
WILL BE PRESENT, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA, AND WITH DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK,
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND AND ARRIVE AHEAD OF IT.
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER COLORADO AND MOVE EASTWARD
PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI OR SOUTHERN IOWA LATER
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW, MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, BUT AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT, THE RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS NOT LOCKED IN AND THUS BRINGS VARIABILITY
TO THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG WITH THERMAL
PROPERTIES OF THE PROFILE. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH SOME LEVEL OF
CONFIDENCE IS THAT THERE IS A WEATHER SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK
THAT WILL LIKELY CONTAIN WINTRY (RAIN/SNOW) PRECIPITATION WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS FOR IOWA IN SOME NORTHERN PORTION. HOW MUCH SNOW
REMAINS TO BE SEEN ON HOW THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE LOW
(PASSING THROUGH QUICKLY VS CLOSING OFF AND SLOWER) AND THIS CAN
VARY BY EACH MODEL AND WITHIN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE BREEZIER WINDS DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. FURTHER, MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS WILL SETTLE IN FOR FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE EVENING,
ALONG WITH VFR CEILINGS AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BREAKUP. THERE
DOES REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, ALONG WITH THE LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO BE QUITE LOW ON OVERALL POTENTIAL AND EVEN COVERAGE IF ANY
WERE TO DEVELOP, SO WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS AND CONDITIONS
CLOSELY THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. ANY STORMS COULD LEAD TO
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECTING LOW LEVEL UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND
RESULTANT TURBULENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN WILL SEE A SHIFT
TO WESTERLY AFTER 06Z WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASING LLWS ACROSS
IOWA UNTIL AROUND 12-15Z. SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE STATE INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS REMAINING BREEZY, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN IOWA GUSTING TO 30-35+ KNOTS.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...ANSORGE
AVIATION...BURY
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