270
FXUS63 KDMX 190513
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1113 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. RED FLAG WARNING IN
PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 7PM. DO NOT BURN!
- WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING.
WIND ADVISORY NORTH HALF OF THE AREA. GUSTS OF 40-55 MPH OR
MORE, THE HIGHEST GUSTS IN NORTHERN IOWA.
- RAIN/SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATING SNOW
CHANCES INCREASING, ESPECIALLY NORTH. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IN EFFECT OVER NORTH/NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.
- INCREASING WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH COOLER, MORE SEASONAL, TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH HAVE LEAD TO AT LEAST A HANDFUL OF FIRES EARLIER TODAY IN
CENTRAL IOWA, SPECIFICALLY IN POLK, CRAWFORD, AND RINGGOLD COUNTIES
TO NAME A FEW. REGARDING WINDS, GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY HAVE RANGED
BETWEEN 40-50 MPH NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS AT
TIMES OF 58 MPH, WHICH OCCURRED AT ESTHERVILLE, WEBSTER CITY, AND
WATERLOO. FURTHER SOUTH, GUSTS WERE GENERALLY LESS AROUND 35-40 MPH,
ISOLATED TO 45 AT TIMES. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS MAY HOLD ON UNTIL AROUND SUNSET, SO HAVE EXTENDED THE
CURRENT WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM, THEN DECREASING FURTHER FOR THE
REST OF THE EVENING. HIGH END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE
TO LINGERING WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN, WITH THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINING UNTIL
7PM FOR ALL OF CENTRAL IOWA. OTHERWISE, MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING
INTO THE STATE WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING RH VALUES, WHICH PAIRED WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING WINDS TONIGHT WILL END FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
OVER IOWA. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL LEAD
TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S, WARMEST SOUTH.
ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN
BY EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER DYNAMIC SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN CENTRAL PLAINS. IOWA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
THOUGH CAMS HAVE BEEN INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN
WITH THE LIFT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING THROUGH THE STATE,
THOUGH SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DRY AIR WILL QUITE SUBSTANTIAL YET,
WHICH WOULD LIKELY KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
THE FOCUS WITH THIS SYSTEM PRIMARILY RESTS ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS
TRENDED LATER IN TERMS OF ARRIVAL, WITH A BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP
INTO IOWA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING AND PASSING
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW DIFFERENCES ON THE OVERALL TRACKING OF THIS BAND OF SNOW, WITH
CAM GUIDANCE MOSTLY KEEPING THIS BAND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH TO
NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA, WHILE EXPERIMENTAL AI GUIDANCE AND THE
DETERMINISTIC NAM ARE PLACING THIS BAND CLOSER TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
GIVEN OVERALL MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, AS WELL AS
CONSIDERATIONS OF WHERE THE COLDER AIR ALLOWING FOR SNOWFALL THROUGH
THE COLUMN, THE CURRENT THINKING IS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
GENERALLY RESIDE MORE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHERN IOWA. IN TERMS
OF THE MESOSCALE DETAILS, DEEP LIFT THROUGH A GENERALLY WELL
SATURATED SOUNDING, INCLUDING THE DGZ PER NORTHERN IOWA SOUNDING
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF 1-2 INCH
SNOW RATES FOR A SHORT PERIOD THURSDAY EVENING, WHICH GIVEN THESE
RATES WOULD ALLOW FOR THIS SNOW TO STICK RATHER QUICKLY EVEN AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. GIVEN
THIS POTENTIAL, HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER NORTH TO
NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO
OUTLINE THIS POTENTIAL. AMOUNTS BELOW AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER
SOUTH THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPORTANT TAKEAWAYS ARE
THAT A BAND OF EFFICIENT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO IOWA BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING, THOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES MENTIONED ABOVE, AND WILL
LIKELY STILL SEE AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE AMOUNTS, WITH
TRENDS BEING MONITORED VERY CLOSELY. OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION, A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS IOWA AS WELL
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
FREEZING, THIS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ON THE WET SIDE, WHICH
WILL KEEP THE BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL VERY MINIMAL. THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS OF CONCERN WILL BE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO LOWERED
VISIBILITY AND SLICK ROADS.
AS ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION DECREASES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS IOWA THROUGH THE DAY FROM
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO 30S. INTO THE WEEKEND, COOLER AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS LOOK
TO CONTINUE, WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM OF QUESTION IN EARLIER
FORECAST PACKAGES NOW TRENDING DRIER AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM
THE SOUTH LOOKS TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LARGE AREA OF COOL AND DRY
AIR FROM THE INCOMING CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
THEREFORE, HAVE LEANED ON A MAINLY DRY WEEKEND FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
THE TWO MAIN IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE THE SHIFTING WINDS
AND ARRIVING WINTER STORM. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 20-25 KTS AFTER 18Z.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BY MIDNIGHT, AND SHIFT
FURTHER TO NORTHEASTERLY BY 12Z. AS THE STORM ARRIVES MIDDAY
TOMORROW, THE FORECAST BECOMES INCREASING COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN.
A BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL IOWA,
REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND BRINGING WITH IT LOWERED CEILINGS, AND
LIKELY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BEYOND 21Z. THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN, THOUGH AT THIS
TIME RECENT TRENDS HAVE SHOWN SNOW IMPACTING KDSM AND KALO, BUT
COULD IMPACT KMCW, KFOD, AND KOTM AS WELL. CURRENT TAFS LARGELY
REFLECT MVFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW EVENING, BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOW
BANDS COULD INDUCE IFR CONDITIONS AND FUTURE TAFS WILL BE
UPDATED AS NECESSARY.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR IAZ023-024-033>035-044>047-057>059-070>072-081-082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR IAZ025>028-036>039-048>050-060-061-073-074.
DISCUSSION...BURY
AVIATION...HAGENHOFF/DE BRUIN
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