458
FXUS63 KDMX 191011
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
411 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A
NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS WILL SET UP OVER CENTRAL
IOWA WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING QUICKLY OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA.
- INCREASING WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH COOLER, MORE SEASONAL, TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
VERY CHALLENGING SNOW FORECAST FOR TODAY. STILL LOOKING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING
IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM THOUGH
DRY AIR REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR. IF ANYTHING WERE TO REACH THE
GROUND, IT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY AS LIGHT RAIN OR A COUPLE
SPRINKLES GIVEN THE LOCATION AND TIMING, THOUGH LARGELY
EXPECTING THE DRY AIR TO WIN OUT THIS MORNING. PROFILES START TO
SATURATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING
FROM MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WESTERN INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL IOWA AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE ARRIVES. THIS
PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BEGIN AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW.
THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST IS THE LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS
SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. THE MOST LIKELY IS A BAND OF 2-5"
WITH AN EVEN NARROWER CORRIDOR OF 6+". THE OOZ GUIDANCE BETWEEN
CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS WAS ALL ON BOARD WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK EXTENDING FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST IOWA, INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE I-80 AND US-30 CORRIDORS. AS CAN HAPPEN WITH
NARROW BAND SNOW SYSTEMS, SOME OF THE LATEST 6Z GUIDANCE HAS
STARTED A SMALL TREND BACK NORTH. IT IS STILL LOOKING UNLIKELY
THE SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER FAR NORTHERN IOWA SO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD LAST
EVENING AND ONLY A SMALL CHANGE EASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FOOTPRINT OF THE ADVISORY MAY STILL BE TOO LARGE AND
ADJUSTMENTS MAY STILL BE NEEDED. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLY
UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACTLY WHERE THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
BUT LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED WITHIN THE
ADVISORY AREA, WITH A NARROW AREA OF HEAVIER AMOUNTS, BUT SNOW
TOTALS MAY VARY GREATLY FROM ONE SIDE OF A COUNTY TO ANOTHER. AS
AN EXAMPLE, A COUNTY IN NORTHERN IOWA COULD SEE NEAR TO LESS
THAN 1" IN THE FAR NORTH SIDE OF THE COUNTY AND 2-3" OR MORE ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE COUNTY. THIS MAKES HEADLINE DECISIONS
DIFFICULT WHEN FULL COUNTIES HAVE TO BE INCLUDED. ADDITIONALLY,
THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND ANY RAIN EARLY MAKE SNOW
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS TRICKY BUT MAY BE COUNTERACTED BY THE RATE
OF SNOW. SNOW RATES NEAR OR EXCEED 1" PER HOUR AT TIMES LEADING
TO POOR VISIBILITY AND QUICKLY ACCUMULATING SNOW ON ROADWAYS
RESULTING IN CHALLENGING AND SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS. THE SNOW
TYPE WILL CERTAINLY BE WET. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT OF
INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH. WITH
THE WET NATURE, BLOWING SNOW ITSELF WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN,
BUT VISIBILITY MAY BE IMPACTED AS SNOW FALLS. THE MAIN TAKEAWAYS
ARE HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA TODAY AS SNOW ACCUMULATES WHICH MAY
IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE. ONLY OTHER CHANGE WAS COOLED
TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY FOR TODAY WITH THE QUICKLY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND THE WARM SECTOR LARGELY HELD TO THE SOUTH OF
IOWA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN
BY EARLY THURSDAY WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER DYNAMIC SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN CENTRAL PLAINS. IOWA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
THOUGH CAMS HAVE BEEN INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN
WITH THE LIFT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING THROUGH THE STATE,
THOUGH SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DRY AIR WILL QUITE SUBSTANTIAL YET,
WHICH WOULD LIKELY KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
THE FOCUS WITH THIS SYSTEM PRIMARILY RESTS ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE
DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS
TRENDED LATER IN TERMS OF ARRIVAL, WITH A BAND OF SNOW SETTING UP
INTO IOWA BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING AND PASSING
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW DIFFERENCES ON THE OVERALL TRACKING OF THIS BAND OF SNOW, WITH
CAM GUIDANCE MOSTLY KEEPING THIS BAND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH TO
NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA, WHILE EXPERIMENTAL AI GUIDANCE AND THE
DETERMINISTIC NAM ARE PLACING THIS BAND CLOSER TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
GIVEN OVERALL MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, AS WELL AS
CONSIDERATIONS OF WHERE THE COLDER AIR ALLOWING FOR SNOWFALL THROUGH
THE COLUMN, THE CURRENT THINKING IS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
GENERALLY RESIDE MORE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHERN IOWA. IN TERMS
OF THE MESOSCALE DETAILS, DEEP LIFT THROUGH A GENERALLY WELL
SATURATED SOUNDING, INCLUDING THE DGZ PER NORTHERN IOWA SOUNDING
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF 1-2 INCH
SNOW RATES FOR A SHORT PERIOD THURSDAY EVENING, WHICH GIVEN THESE
RATES WOULD ALLOW FOR THIS SNOW TO STICK RATHER QUICKLY EVEN AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. GIVEN
THIS POTENTIAL, HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER NORTH TO
NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO
OUTLINE THIS POTENTIAL. AMOUNTS BELOW AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER
SOUTH THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THE MAIN IMPORTANT TAKEAWAYS ARE
THAT A BAND OF EFFICIENT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO IOWA BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING, THOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION
REMAINS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES MENTIONED ABOVE, AND WILL
LIKELY STILL SEE AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE AMOUNTS, WITH
TRENDS BEING MONITORED VERY CLOSELY. OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION, A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS IOWA AS WELL
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
FREEZING, THIS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ON THE WET SIDE, WHICH
WILL KEEP THE BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL VERY MINIMAL. THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS OF CONCERN WILL BE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO LOWERED
VISIBILITY AND SLICK ROADS.
AS ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION DECREASES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS IOWA THROUGH THE DAY FROM
INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO 30S. INTO THE WEEKEND, COOLER AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS LOOK
TO CONTINUE, WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM OF QUESTION IN EARLIER
FORECAST PACKAGES NOW TRENDING DRIER AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE FROM
THE SOUTH LOOKS TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LARGE AREA OF COOL AND DRY
AIR FROM THE INCOMING CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
THEREFORE, HAVE LEANED ON A MAINLY DRY WEEKEND FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
THE TWO MAIN IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE THE SHIFTING WINDS
AND ARRIVING WINTER STORM. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CALM THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 20-25 KTS AFTER 18Z.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BY MIDNIGHT, AND SHIFT
FURTHER TO NORTHEASTERLY BY 12Z. AS THE STORM ARRIVES MIDDAY
TOMORROW, THE FORECAST BECOMES INCREASING COMPLEX AND UNCERTAIN.
A BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE IN CENTRAL IOWA,
REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND BRINGING WITH IT LOWERED CEILINGS, AND
LIKELY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BEYOND 21Z. THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN, THOUGH AT THIS
TIME RECENT TRENDS HAVE SHOWN SNOW IMPACTING KDSM AND KALO, BUT
COULD IMPACT KMCW, KFOD, AND KOTM AS WELL. CURRENT TAFS LARGELY
REFLECT MVFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW EVENING, BUT THE HEAVIEST SNOW
BANDS COULD INDUCE IFR CONDITIONS AND FUTURE TAFS WILL BE
UPDATED AS NECESSARY.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
FRIDAY FOR IAZ023-024-033>035-044>047-057>059-070>072-081-082.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
FRIDAY FOR IAZ025>028-036>039-048>050-060>062-073-074.
UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...BURY
AVIATION...HAGENHOFF/DE BRUIN
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