498
FXUS63 KDMX 201947
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
147 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRY POSSIBLE ALONG THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER TONIGHT.
NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
- BREEZY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO
AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
- WARMER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
REVEALING THE SWATH OF SNOWFALL LEFT IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM.
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA WERE QUITE ROBUST, WITH ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 8
INCHES FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL IOWA, THEN GENERALLY 8 TO 12 INCHES
FROM INTERSTATE 35/DES MOINES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH WATERLOO. FAR
NORTHWESTERN IOWA BETWEEN WATERLOO AND MASON CITY THEN UP TOWARDS
DECORAH WERE THE REAL WINNERS THOUGH, WITH SNOWFALL REPORTS OF
RANGING FROM 13 TO 16 INCHES IN A NARROW SWATH. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON ALSO SHOWS THE SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE BAND SEPARATING BARE GROUND NEAR FOREST CITY AND ALGONA, FROM
THE 6 TO 12" OF SNOW IN FORT DODGE TO HAMPTON.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT, BUT REMAIN LIGHT
TO BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AND WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH, WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW HOURS OF
EFFICIENT COOLING AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
SNOW PACK, WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKER THAN THOSE WITH
BARE GROUND. HOWEVER, MID- AND UPPER- LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM A
SECOND, WEAKER SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTH WILL WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, AS WILL A BROAD AREA OF STRATUS DROPPING INTO
NORTHEASTERN IOWA. BOTH OF THESE CLOUD DECKS WILL WORK TO INSULATE
THE GROUND, PREVENTING TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY PLUMMETING IN
SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN IOWA. THAT SAID, THERE WILL STILL BE
AREAS THAT REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES, IN
COMBINATION WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK AND THE RECENT WARMTH SWAYING
THE NBM BIAS-CORRECTION, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE LIKELY TOO WARM.
THEREFORE, HAVE DROPPED THE POPULATED NBM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY OVER THE SNOW PACK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH DOES FIND ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI
TONIGHT, BUT WILL EXPERIENCE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR IN IOWA FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL YOU LOOK AT, A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER DOES CREEP INTO SOUTHERN IOWA, BUT THESE SOLUTIONS
APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS. IF A SHOWER WERE TO MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA, IT WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. THEREFORE, HAVE
LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY MORE ROBUST SNOW SHOWERS.
ASIDE FROM THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THE FORECAST
REMAINS COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED THE TREND
OF LOWERING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES OVER THE SNOWPACK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE NBM BEGINS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES
IN THIS COLDER REGIME. WITH THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS WILL BE COMMON. THE COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AS ANOTHER PUSH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN
BEHIND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL ALSO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ASSUMING SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR OF ANY STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THE
REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR, CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS BY
EARLY MONDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH ZERO AND WIND
CHILLS TO FALL BELOW ZERO.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL ON MONDAY, BUT RELIEF LOOKS TO BE ON
THE WAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AS 500 MB RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE STATE. THE
SNOWPACK WILL LIMIT HOW WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN GET DURING
THE DAY, BUT ADVECTING WARMER SOUTHERLY AIR INTO THE AREA WILL
AT LEAST START TO CHIP AWAY AT SNOW ON THE GROUND. THE LONGEVITY
OF THIS WARM AIR WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE PATH OF A FEW WAVES
SHOWING UP IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH
GUIDANCE IS FAR FROM ANY AGREEMENT ON AT THIS RANGE. FOR NOW,
THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SOME POTENTIAL MELTING INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW HAVE CONCLUDED OVER THE AREA, BUT
LINGERING STRATUS AROUND 1K TO 2K FEET CONTINUES TO CAUSE MVFR
IMPACTS AT KOTM, KALO, AND KMCW. THIS STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
WITH SOME CLEARING TO VFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES BY THIS EVENING.
BREEZY WINDS WILL ALSO BE DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY,
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER MVFR STRATUS
DECK IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
IMPACTING AT LEAST KMCW AND KALO. HOWEVER, IT MAY REACH AS FAR
SOUTH AS KDSM AND KOTM FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE ISN'T AS HIGH FOR THE MORE
SOUTHERLY SITES, SO HAVE KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH FOR THIS
ISSUANCE.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DODSON
AVIATION...DODSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page