727
FXUS63 KDMX 211757
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1157 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME FLURRY CHANCES, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
GUSTY WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
- COLD WIND CHILL VALUES LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING NORTH AN
AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
- WARMER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK THOUGH WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE SNOW PACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 408 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF IOWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS MORNING'S WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SHOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL PV ANOMALY OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS WHICH IS LIFTING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS INTO SOUTHERN IOWA WITH BASES AOA 7 KFT. KINEMATIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS LEADING TO MODEST VERTICAL
ASCENT WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE HERE IS IF ANY
FLURRIES CAN REACH THE SURFACE. THE MEAN LAYER FLOW BELOW 700 MB OR
ROUGHLY 8 KFT, CONSISTS OF DRY AIR FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. CLOUD
BASES BELOW THE 8 KFT WILL OCCUR DUE TO HYDROMETEOR LOADING SUB
CLOUD BASE LEADING TO LOWER SATURATION BUT THIS PROCESS WILL NOT BE
VERY EFFICIENT WITH THE DRY AIR INTRUSION. THERE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES BUT WITH IMPACTS NEGLIGIBLE, HAVE LEFT
OUT OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY BE IMPACT MORE THROUGH,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEW SNOW PACK REGION, WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY SOLAR
FILTERING FROM CLOUD COVER TODAY ALONG WITH COLD START THIS MORNING
MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS IN SOME AREAS, OTHERWISE HIGHS IN
THE 20S ELSEWHERE. ALSO MONITORING STRATUS FRAGMENTS THAT ARE
SETTLING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH EXPANSION AREAL WISE WITH THIS STRATUS
BUT THE EXISTING CLOUDS COULD MOVE INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA LATER TODAY.
A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL DROP THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH ONE ARRIVING TONIGHT AND THE OTHER ON SUNDAY. BOTH SHORT WAVES
WILL HAVE AN ATTENDANT BOUNDARY AND COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF 10 TO 20
BELOW ZERO OVER NORTHERN IOWA SUNDAY MORNING AND 10 TO 15 BELOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A MORE BROAD AREA
OF STRATUS WELL UPSTREAM OVER MANITOBA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DESCEND
SOUTH AND INTO PARTS OF IOWA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THERMAL
PROFILES OVER NORTHERN IOWA WILL FEATURE A DEEP LAYER OF FAVORABLE
DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURES. STRATUS PASSING THROUGH THESE TYPES
OF ENVIRONMENTS OFTEN PRODUCE FLURRIES. BEYOND MONDAY, THE MID-LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW BREAKS DOWN INTO A MORE MODIFIED ZONAL FLOW. THIS IS
A WARMER PATTERN FOR IOWA, HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOSTLY CUT
OFF FROM IOWA MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, MEANING LOWER DEW POINTS. SNOW PACK
OVER IOWA ALONG WITH LOWER/SUB FREEZING DEW POINTS DO NOT PROMOTE A
FAVORABLE WARMING SETUP, AT LEAST NOT TO THE EXTENT MODELS SUGGEST.
THERE MAY BE A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE STATE BETWEEN THE
SNOW PACK AND SNOW FREE AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
REVEALING THE SWATH OF SNOWFALL LEFT IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S SYSTEM.
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA WERE QUITE ROBUST, WITH ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 8
INCHES FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL IOWA, THEN GENERALLY 8 TO 12 INCHES
FROM INTERSTATE 35/DES MOINES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH WATERLOO. FAR
NORTHWESTERN IOWA BETWEEN WATERLOO AND MASON CITY THEN UP TOWARDS
DECORAH WERE THE REAL WINNERS THOUGH, WITH SNOWFALL REPORTS OF
RANGING FROM 13 TO 16 INCHES IN A NARROW SWATH. SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON ALSO SHOWS THE SHARP CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE BAND SEPARATING BARE GROUND NEAR FOREST CITY AND ALGONA, FROM
THE 6 TO 12" OF SNOW IN FORT DODGE TO HAMPTON.
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT FROM LAST NIGHT, BUT REMAIN LIGHT
TO BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AND WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH, WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW HOURS OF
EFFICIENT COOLING AFTER SUNSET. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
SNOW PACK, WHERE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKER THAN THOSE WITH
BARE GROUND. HOWEVER, MID- AND UPPER- LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM A
SECOND, WEAKER SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTH WILL WORK IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, AS WILL A BROAD AREA OF STRATUS DROPPING INTO
NORTHEASTERN IOWA. BOTH OF THESE CLOUD DECKS WILL WORK TO INSULATE
THE GROUND, PREVENTING TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY PLUMMETING IN
SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN IOWA. THAT SAID, THERE WILL STILL BE
AREAS THAT REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES, IN
COMBINATION WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK AND THE RECENT WARMTH SWAYING
THE NBM BIAS-CORRECTION, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE LIKELY TOO WARM.
THEREFORE, HAVE DROPPED THE POPULATED NBM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY OVER THE SNOW PACK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH DOES FIND ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI
TONIGHT, BUT WILL EXPERIENCE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR IN IOWA FROM THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. DEPENDING ON THE MODEL YOU LOOK AT, A BRIEF
SNOW SHOWER DOES CREEP INTO SOUTHERN IOWA, BUT THESE SOLUTIONS
APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS. IF A SHOWER WERE TO MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA, IT WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. THEREFORE, HAVE
LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY MORE ROBUST SNOW SHOWERS.
ASIDE FROM THE WAVE TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THE FORECAST
REMAINS COLD AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED THE TREND
OF LOWERING TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES OVER THE SNOWPACK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE THE NBM BEGINS TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES
IN THIS COLDER REGIME. WITH THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS WILL BE COMMON. THE COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AS ANOTHER PUSH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN
BEHIND ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL ALSO BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. ASSUMING SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR OF ANY STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THE
REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR, CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS BY
EARLY MONDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH ZERO AND WIND
CHILLS TO FALL BELOW ZERO.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL ON MONDAY, BUT RELIEF LOOKS TO BE ON
THE WAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AS 500 MB RIDGING
DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE STATE. THE
SNOWPACK WILL LIMIT HOW WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN GET DURING
THE DAY, BUT ADVECTING WARMER SOUTHERLY AIR INTO THE AREA WILL
AT LEAST START TO CHIP AWAY AT SNOW ON THE GROUND. THE LONGEVITY
OF THIS WARM AIR WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE PATH OF A FEW WAVES
SHOWING UP IN THE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH
GUIDANCE IS FAR FROM ANY AGREEMENT ON AT THIS RANGE. FOR NOW,
THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SOME POTENTIAL MELTING INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
THERE ARE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE STATE
AT MIDDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS ALSO A
SMALL, PATCHY AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS NEAR FOD, BUT HAVE
PREVAILED VFR UNTIL THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES. STRATUS CLOUDS
ARE STILL FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE STATE TONIGHT AND EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS AT MCW, ALO, AND FOD. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR SOUTHWESTWARD AND SOUTHERN EXTENT SO HAVE CONTINUED SCT
FL025-030 BASES AT DSM AND OTM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT KEPT PESSIMISTIC FORECAST AT
ALO AND MCW. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTIER LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH GUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS COMMON.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...DONAVON
DISCUSSION...DODSON
AVIATION...ANSORGE/ROTTER
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