102
FXUS63 KDMX 211940
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
140 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHILLY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MORNING WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 5 TO
15 BELOW ZERO.
- GUSTY WINDS, FLURRIES POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- TURNING MILDER TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT TEMPERED
IN SNOW PACK AREAS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON DAY CLOUD PHASE DISTINCTION RGB SHOWS STREAKS AND
PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE STATE. THERE HAVE BEEN
A FEW PASSING LOW CLOUDS ALSO AS SEEN IN THE SAME RGB IMAGERY AND
CONFIRMED BY ASOS CEILINGS AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET. WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST ARE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT ANOTHER BOOST TO
WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS DOWN OVER
IOWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TOP OF MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 30 TO 35
MPH SUCH THAT WIND AND GUSTS WERE INCREASED A BIT OVER THE INITIAL
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM). THIS WILL ACCENTUATE THE CHILL
SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO
AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO. THE OTHER FORECAST FEATURE WE ARE WATCHING
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ARE STRATUS CLOUDS. CURRENT SATELLITE UPSTREAM
OF IOWA DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT CONCERNING WITH LOW CLOUD PATCHES
ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA LINE WITH MORE RECENT
DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
CERTAINLY NOT AS EXPANSIVE LIKE THE HREF WOULD SUGGEST AT THIS HOUR,
BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT IN LINE WITH THE LAMP GUIDANCE. OUR CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS THAT THE STRATUS WILL EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
IOWA TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE
STATE. CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL
SATURATION STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL BE NEAR
IF NOT A BIT ABOVE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THE LIFT DOES LOOK
MINIMAL, BUT STRATUS OFTEN OUTPERFORMS EXPECTATIONS SO HAVE INCLUDED
FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN INTO EASTERN IOWA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
STRATUS CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE
SKY CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, IT WILL BE A CHILLY
START TO THE WEEK WITH MORNING LOWS AROUND ZERO DEGREES. WINDS WILL
BE DIMINISHING, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRY TO PUSH A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL US FROM EARLY TO MIDWEEK, BUT THE RIDGE WILL BE
FLATTENED AND KEPT LARGELY WEST OF IOWA AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS RIDE
THROUGH THE FLOW. WHILE MONDAY WILL STILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS, THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE
WARMER CONDITIONS, ALBEIT TEMPERED IN SNOW AREAS. THE NBM DOES SHOW
THE SNOW FOOTPRINT IN ITS TEMPERATURE FIELD, BUT IS ALSO LIKELY
OVERDOING THE WARM UP IN THESE AREAS. ON THE OTHER HAND, SNOW FREE
AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN IOWA, ARE LIKELY HANDLED WELL IF NOT
PERHAPS A TOUCH LOW. AS WE HEAD INTO A WARMER PATTERN WITH SNOW ON
THE GROUND, THE THOUGHT OF FOG CREEPS INTO THE MIND AND DISCUSSION.
HOWEVER, MOISTURE RETURN IS LIMITED WITH THE WARM UP WITH DEWPOINTS
AND WETBULBS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING LIMITING THE SNOW MELT SO, ANY
WIDESPREAD, DENSE FOG SIGNAL IS NOT PRESENT AT THIS TIME. BEYOND
TEMPERATURES, A SHORTWAVE RIBBON WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE. WHILE
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BREEZIER DAY, THERE IS NOT A BIG PUSH OF COLD
AIR AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND FLEETING. A MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 0Z
CLUSTER ANALYSIS AND LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA POINT TO
PRECIPITATION OVER SOME PORTIONS IF NOT ALL OF CENTRAL IOWA SOMETIME
LATER WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
THERE ARE PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE STATE
AT MIDDAY WITH BREEZY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS ALSO A
SMALL, PATCHY AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS NEAR FOD, BUT HAVE
PREVAILED VFR UNTIL THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES. STRATUS CLOUDS
ARE STILL FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE STATE TONIGHT AND EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS AT MCW, ALO, AND FOD. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
IN THEIR SOUTHWESTWARD AND SOUTHERN EXTENT SO HAVE CONTINUED SCT
FL025-030 BASES AT DSM AND OTM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT KEPT PESSIMISTIC FORECAST AT
ALO AND MCW. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTIER LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH GUST OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS COMMON.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANSORGE
AVIATION...ANSORGE/ROTTER
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