668
FXUS63 KDMX 221153
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
553 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW WIND CHILLS AT TIMES
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
- WARMER ON TUESDAY BUT HAVE TEMPERED THE WARM UP IN AREAS WITH
SNOW COVER AND SNOW MELT WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS THIS WEEK.
- A STRONGER SYSTEM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE #1 IS PASSING OVER THE STATE CURRENTLY. A FEW
FLURRIES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH AN AREA OF STRATUS DROPPING SOUTH
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
HAS BROUGHT COLD ADVECTION AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE STATE.
SHORT WAVE #2 WILL ARRIVE TODAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD
ADVECTION TO THE REGION. WHILE SOME VERY THIN STRATUS, IN ADDITION
THE THE MORE WELL FORMED STRATUS MENTIONED ABOVE, IS NOW OVER IOWA,
ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS IS MOVING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THESE CLOUDS ARE FOLLOWING THE 900 MB
FLOW, WHICH IS FROM AROUND 350 DEGREES AT 30 KTS. THAT SPEED WOULD
PLACE THIS AREA OF CLOUDS INTO NORTHERN IOWA AT 12-13Z. ONE FORECAST
CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THESE CLOUDS AND HOW
FAR SOUTH IT WILL REACH. MUCH OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS THIS
CLOUD LAYER ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. TRYING TO FIND THE REASON FOR THIS EROSION WITHIN THE
MODELS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRYING IN THE 800-
850 MB RANGE BUT NOT WITHIN THE CURRENT CLOUD LAYER. ALSO, DESPITE
THE SECOND SHORT WAVE PASSAGE, THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE
SIGNAL IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM. FAVOR A MORE CLOUDY SOLUTION FOR
TODAY WITH THIS STRATUS LAYER STUCK UNDER THE INVERSION AND DRYING
ABOVE THIS LAYER AND THE FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW. SOME EROSION MAY
OCCUR ON THE WEST EDGE BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT SUGGESTED BY MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED. WHILE THE WIND WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT, IT WILL STILL BE IN THE 8-13 MPH RANGE AND
COMBINED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO, WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES OF 10 TO 15 BELOW
ZERO.
THE AREA WITH SNOW COVER ACROSS IOWA WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
WARMING THIS WEEK WHILE THE SNOW FREE AREAS MAY WARM NICELY ON
TUESDAY ANYWAY. OTHERWISE, TAP ON THE BRAKES ABOUT THIS WARMING
HYPE. STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY FORESEEING HOW A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP CAN
OCCUR OVER THE SNOW AREA WHERE THERE WILL BE LOWER TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN WITH. THE LOWER DEW POINTS ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN LOWER SURFACE WET BULBS THAT WON'T BE EFFICIENT AT
SNOW MELT. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN ON
TUESDAY AND WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO NORTHEAST IOWA.
MONITORING THE SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE STATE AND POTENTIALLY MORE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. THE NBM IS FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S ON FRIDAY.
AT THIS POINT, THAT IS VERY OPTIMISTIC AT BEST. FINAL PONDERING
THOUGHTS IN THE DAY 6-10 RANGE, WHY IS THE POLAR VORTEX SHIFTING
SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE?
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
MVFR STRATUS IS THE PRIMARY AVIATION FOCUS DURING THE PERIOD.
THIN STRATUS THAT IS NOT SHOWING UP WELL ON SATELLITE IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS IOWA. A MORE WELL FORMED AREA OF STRATUS
IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS MINNESOTA. TIMING AND POTENTIAL EROSION
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THAT STRATUS AS IT ARRIVES INTO IOWA
LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINLY ON EXTENT AND RESIDENCE TIME AT
SITES. KMCW/KALO WILL BE IMPACTED FOR A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD.
INTRODUCED A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS AT OTHER SITES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS MAY ARRIVE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME, HAVE
ONLY MENTIONED SCT025 AT KDSM/KOTM AND WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND TODAY WILL PERSIST MUCH
OF THE PERIOD.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DONAVON
AVIATION...DONAVON
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