463
FXUS63 KDMX 080435
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1035 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH WARMER, DRIER
CONDITIONS AND BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE STATE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH WINTRY
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
REMNANT POST-FRONTAL STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OVERCAST
SKIES OVER MUCH OF IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ARE STEADILY
ERODING FROM WEST TO EAST. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH STRATUS, THESE
CLOUDS HAVE HUNG ON LONGER THAN THE MODELS PROGGED THEM TO, WHICH
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST. THAT SAID, SKIES
HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR OUT OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL IOWA AND SUNSHINE
SHOULD RETURN BEFORE SUNSET FOR MOST OF CENTRAL IOWA. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH JUST A FEW MID- TO
UPPER- LEVEL CLOUDS GRAZING THE STATE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA. THESE CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY A QUICK-MOVING WAVE PASSING TO OUR
NORTH TONIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING A SUBTLE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA,
RESULTING IN LIGHT TO BREEZY WINDS AND A FLIP TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT.
QUICKLY LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVELS, A LOBE OF ENERGY FRAGMENTED
FROM THE OVERALL TROUGHING THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST NIGHT HAS BEGUN
TO CLOSE OFF AND WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL SHUT OFF MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM THROUGH THAT SAME PERIOD, KEEPING IOWA UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH
THIS ZONAL FLOW PATTERN (INCLUDING TONIGHT'S WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE),
BUT THESE GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT,
CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT, WITH
WARM, DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND GENERALLY A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE. THIS SETUP, IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WARM TEMPERATURES AND EFFICIENT MIXING. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER ALL OF CENTRAL
IOWA. THEN, HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL MAKE A RUN INTO THE 70S OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA AND 60S IN THE NORTHERN HALF. WITH THIS WARM,
DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH ARE EXPECTED AND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE GREATEST IN AREAS WHERE LESS RAIN FELL YESTERDAY,
BUT FUELS WILL STILL DRY OUT QUICKLY IN WETTER AREAS WITH AMPLE SUN
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. FORECAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
STAY IN THE 30 TO 40% RANGE, SO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES DON'T APPEAR
LIKELY AT THIS TIME, BUT CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE USED IF BURNING.
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON MONDAY, BUT WINDS WON'T BE
AS STRONG AS ON SUNDAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO START THE WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
OUR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WHEN A MORE PROMINENT LONG-WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST
CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL DISRUPT THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS, CAUSING IT TO EJECT OUT AHEAD OF IT. THESE TWO UPPER WAVES
WILL MEET AND MERGE OVER THE CENTRAL US, OPENING UP THE SPIGOT AS
GULF MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD AND TAKES ADVANTAGE OF THE SYNOPTIC
FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE TWO SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THESE TWO WAVES AND PRECIPITATION
RETURNING TO THE STATE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NBM
REFLECTS THIS CONFIDENCE, PUTTING A 70 TO 80% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND ROUGHLY A 40 TO 50% CHANCE OVER THE REST OF THE
STATE. BASED ON THE CURRENT PROGRESSION IN GUIDANCE (WHICH IS
ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT RIGHT NOW), THE LOW PASSES OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERN
IOWA IN THE WARM, MOIST AIR, FAVORING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS,
SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE AS INDICATED BY THE DAY 4 15%
SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER THAT
IS NOW CLIPPING SOUTHEASTERN IOWA. AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE COOLER, DRIER AIR, FAVORING A COLD
RAIN AND/OR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THIS COLDER, DRIER SIDE IS
WHERE GUIDANCE GENERALLY DIVERGES IN QPF AND EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION, HENCE THE DIFFERENCES IN NBM PROBABILITIES
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST COMPARED TO PROBABILITIES NEAR THE LOW IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA. THE PATH OF THIS SURFACE LOW AND THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER WAVES WILL GREATLY DICTATE
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WEATHER THAT OCCURS ACROSS THE STATE,
AND WITH 3 TO 4 DAYS OUT STILL, THE PROGRESSION CAN, AND LIKELY
WILL, CHANGE. THEREFORE NOT GOING TO DIVE TOO MUCH MORE INTO
SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
COOLER AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. ANOTHER CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM THEN DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO END THE
WEEK, POTENTIALLY BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION TO AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED THIS EVENING TO OUT OF THE SOUTH - SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT
LLWS IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL SITES WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING OVER THE STATE. THIS WILL DIMINISH IN THE
MORNING, GIVING WAY TO BREEZY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL GUST 20-25+ KTS ACROSS ALL SITES ON SUNDAY.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DODSON
LONG TERM...DODSON
AVIATION...HAGENHOFF
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