365
FXUS63 KDMX 081725
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1225 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND BREEZY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER AS FUELS DRY.
- HIGHS INTO THE 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT COOLING RESUMES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY. A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) COVERS SOUTHEAST IOWA. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE, BUT DEPENDENT ON IF THE WARM SECTOR CAN
REACH THAT FAR NORTH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE PRESENT THIS MORNING, A REFLECTION OF A WEAK
WAVE PASSING OVERHEAD. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP ADVECT IN WARM,
DRY AIR FOR TODAY AND MONDAY, A PATTERN USUALLY CONDUCIVE OF
OVERPERFORMING HIGHS. HAVE USED NBM 50TH PERCENTILE TO BUMP HIGHS
UP, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ACROSS THE WEST. NORTHERN IOWA MAY BE
LIMITED BY CLOUDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PAUSED FROM
ADVECTING INTO THE MIDWEST FOR NOW, SO THE SURFACE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE DRY. HAVE BLENDED IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AS NBM DEW POINTS
ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH. A WARM, DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO MEANS THAT WIND
GUSTS WILL BE COMMONPLACE TODAY, EVEN BEYOND THE INITIAL DECOUPLING
STAGE AT SUNSET BEGINS. WARM, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LEAD TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT CONDITIONS ARE DEPENDENT ON HOW DRY FUELS CAN
BECOME TODAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
A CUTOFF LOW SITTING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BE PUSHED EAST
AS A DEEPENING SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS BOTH
LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL US, THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS BEGIN TO
PHASE. MODEL AGREEMENT IS RELATIVELY HIGH WITH THIS SYNOPTIC
PROGRESSION, BRINGING THE SYSTEMS TOGETHER ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
SET TO TRACK NEAR THE IOWA-MISSOURI BORDER. THIS PROGRESSION PLACES
IOWA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE LOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE RAIN AS
THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE TUESDAY EVENING, TRANSITIONING
OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
MODEL DIFFERENCES, NAMELY THAT THE GFS SUITE IS SLOWER AND COLDER
THAN THAN THE EC SUITE, RESULTING IN A MODEST INCREASE IN WINTRY
ACCUMULATION (SNOW) OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT TRACK WOULD PUT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN IOWA, HOWEVER THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE TRACK TO SHIFT. THE WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS, AND WITH THE CURRENT SURFACE LOW TRACK PARTS
OF SOUTHERN IOWA MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THAT THUNDERSTORMS
AREA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT, CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS IOWA TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL ALLOW FOR FINE
TUNING OF THE THUNDERSTORM AND LIGHT SNOW EXTENT ACROSS IOWA.
THE LOW LIFTS QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WITH
COOLER, DRY AIR QUICKLY PUSHING INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
INITIALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY
WITH IOWA IN THE WARM SECTOR AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH DURING
THE DAY. PRECIPITATION MAY SKIM NORTHERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, AND TEMPERATURES COOL FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE STATE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE STATE. WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN BREEZY INTO THE EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS GUSTS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, PERSISTING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JIMENEZ
LONG TERM...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...DODSON
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