892
FXUS63 KDMX 090334
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1034 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE STATE LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE
NEAR THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER.
- LIGHT RAIN TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHERN INTO
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. BREEZY AND MILD ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING NICELY OVER THE AREA TODAY, WITH VALUES
ACROSS THE STATE NOW IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AS OF 2 PM. BREEZY WINDS
ARE ALSO INCREASING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25
TO OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES. WITH THE BREEZY WINDS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES, WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ACROSS IOWA TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40 PERCENTS, BUT A FEW SITES IN SOUTHERN IOWA HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOW 30 PERCENTS. A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN FELL IN
SOUTHERN IOWA ON FRIDAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE SERIOUS FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, BUT SUNSHINE AND WINDS HAVE LIKELY WORKED TO DRY
OUT THE FUELS IN SOUTHERN IOWA. THEREFORE, BURNING IS NOT
RECOMMENDED IN THESE AREAS AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HAS BEEN ISSUED. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO TODAY'S WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON MONDAY, BUT
WINDS WON'T BE NEARLY AS STRONG, SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
LESS THAN TODAY, DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE SYSTEM ARRIVING IN THE MIDWEST
LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IF YOU WERE HERE FOR THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS, A CUTOFF 500 MB LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WAS TO BE THANKED FOR OUR ZONAL FLOW AND WARM, DRY CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TOMORROW. THIS STAGNANT CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED RELEASE BACK INTO
THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN AS A LONG-WAVE TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE
NORTHWEST US EARLY TO MID-WEEK. WHILE THIS IS STILL THE EXPECTED
PROGRESSION, THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES HAS CHANGED
SINCE YESTERDAY. INSTEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF LOW BEING
PUSHED OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BEFORE PHASING AND MERGING WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER IOWA, THE CUTOFF LOW IS NOW BEING
MODELED TO STAY DETACHED AND SOUTHWEST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THIS HAS HAD A SUBTLE BUT NOTABLE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST FOR
IOWA. WITH THIS PROGRESSION, THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE STATE AND PREVENTS THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH (AND ALL THE GULF MOISTURE IT HAS WITH IT) FROM FULLY
REACHING IOWA. THERE WILL STILL BE A PUSH OF THETA-E ADVECTION PRIOR
TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH, BUT THAT WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE IS QUICKLY SHOVED SOUTHWARD WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE.
AS FOR HOW THIS AFFECTS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST IN IOWA, WE
ARE NOW SEEING A SOUTHERLY TREND OF THE MAIN QPF AXIS INTO FAR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA, OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS. THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DOES STILL BRING A PUSH OF LIGHT
SNOW AS THE SYNOPTIC FORCING TAPS INTO A PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM
ALOFT, BUT AMOUNTS APPEAR LIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE TO ACCESS THAN
WHAT WOULD'VE BEEN AVAILABLE FROM A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE. THIS
PUTS CENTRAL IOWA IN A "DRY SLOT" OF SORTS, WITH THE PACIFIC STREAM
PRECIPITATION STAYING IN NORTHERN IOWA AND NORTH AND THE GULF STREAM
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN IOWA AND SOUTH.
WHILE THE TREND IS SHIFTING THE MAIN QPF AXIS SOUTH, THE FORECAST
HAS NOT GONE COMPLETELY DRY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK LIKELY IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA
NEARER TO THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND IT'S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A DAY 3 SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AS
INSTABILITY CREEPS NORTHWARD WITH THE WAVE. BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THIS RISK LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE FOR MORE ELEVATED
STORMS IN OUR AREA, WITH A STOUT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS TUESDAY EVENING. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA, AS PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS ALONG A SLOW MOVING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED COLD FRONT. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THEN EXTENDS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST AS A BUFFER TO THE
SLIGHT RISK, BUT IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE, THE MARGINAL RISK AND
GENERAL THUNDER AREAS ARE LIKELY TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST. OF COURSE,
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM, SO THE CURRENT SPC OUTLOOK AREA DOES ACCOUNT FOR THIS
UNCERTAINTY WELL. FINE TUNING OF THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS
EXPECTED IN THE COMING DAYS.
FINALLY, AS MENTIONED EARLIER, LIGHT SNOW CHANCES LOOK TO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA AS COLD AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT WILL BE CONTINGENT ON MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AS THE COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME DON'T AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING OVER
NORTHERN IOWA, WITH AREAS FARTHER SOUTH STAYING WARM ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A COLD RAIN BEFORE SATURATION IS LOST THROUGH THE LAYER.
BETTER CLARITY SHOULD DEVELOP ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WE GET
INTO SOME OF THE MORE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, BUT POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PRECIPITATION LOOKS LOW GIVEN THE CURRENT
DATA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
COOLER AIR FILLS IN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, HEIGHT
RISES, AND INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW,
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ALLEVIATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY ALSO REMAIN MILD IN THE 40S. HOWEVER, THIS COOLER AIR
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING MORE RAIN AND/OR SNOW CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME DRY SUB CLOUD
AIR TO DEAL WITH, BUT AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS
POSSIBLE. SEASONAL CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM BEING MODELED TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY AT THE
END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE LARGELY TAPERED OFF THIS EVENING, HOWEVER A
FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING OCCASIONAL GUSTS. AS THE
NIGHTTIME INVERSION SETTLES IN ANY LINGERING GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH, THOUGH WINDS ALOFT REMAIN STRONG. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A PERIOD OF LLWS ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
ALOFT TAPER OFF AFTER SUNRISE AND LLWS ENDS. WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
MIDDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS AT KFOD/KMCW/KALO. FOR NOW THE
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WIND SHIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF KDSM AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE SOUTHWEST WINDS THERE AND
AT KOTM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DODSON
LONG TERM...DODSON
AVIATION...HAGENHOFF
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