213
FXUS63 KDMX 092332
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
632 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER FAR SOUTHERN IOWA WITH HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- COOLER BUT GENERALLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR TEMPERATURES
MID TO LATE WEEK.
- PERHAPS MORE WINTRY WEATHER LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SLOWLY SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA TODAY
AND IS BEGINNING TO SLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IS BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DESPITE A 20 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY AND HAS RESULTED TO FEW TO NO CLOUDS
PASSING OVER THE STATE. FOR TONIGHT, THE BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND STALL. DES MOINES, WATERLOO, MASON CITY
AND OTTUMWA LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE CURRENTLY AT
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES FOR EACH SITE. THE CURRENT DIURNAL
COOLING AND PROJECTED 06Z TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT A FEW OR
ALL OF THE POTENTIAL RECORDS MAY STAND FOR TODAY.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY THOUGH WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW 60S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THAT MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN A SLOW SURGE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW,
WHICH IS NOW NEAR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST TOWARDS WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE
DYNAMICS TO AMPLIFY AND ALLOW FOR A STRONGER MOISTURE SURGE
NORTHWARD. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML) IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AND CREATE A SURFACE INSTABILITY CAPPING INVERSION OVER
SOUTHERN IOWA AND IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. IT IS
POSSIBLE, SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DOES INITIATE LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SURGE OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION LIFTS
NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA RESULTING IN 2000+ J/KG MUCAPE. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SATURATION AND VERTICAL
ASCENT FROM THE SATURATED POINT FOR CONVECTION TO BE INITIATED. IF
THIS DOES OCCUR, THEN A FEW ELEVATED HAIL STORMS COULD OCCUR.
OTHERWISE THE NEXT POTENTIAL ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. AGAIN, THIS LOOKS MAINLY TO BE A HAIL
THREAT THOUGH THAT WILL BECOME LIMITED AS STRONGER SATURATION OCCURS
AND LIMITS THE INSTABILITY AND WEAKENS LAPSE RATES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS UNDER THE EML/INVERSION ALOFT, STRATUS COULD
OCCUR AND WOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN
IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT ALSO. AT THIS TIME, EXPECTING ONLY MINIMAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION
WITH THE PERIOD OF SATURATION SHORT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
GENERALLY QUIET AND COOLER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PASS MOVE
INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND WILL CREATE A LONG WAVE TROUGH FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW BACK TO IOWA
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND
SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH ABOUT 12Z, BEFORE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS MOVE
OVER MUCH OF THE TERMINALS. GIVEN THE PATCHY NATURE OF THESE LOW
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN IOWA, WOULD ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF MVFR AT
TIMES AFTER 12Z, THEN IMPROVING AFTER 18Z. SITES SUCH AS KDSM
AND ESPECIALLY KOTM ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MORE CONSISTENT LOW
CEILING COVERAGE AFTER 12Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS REMAIN
THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA WHERE A BOUNDARY IS
LOCATED, WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WINDS TURNING
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...BURY
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