273
FXUS63 KDMX 100352
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1052 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER FAR SOUTHERN IOWA WITH HAIL
THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- COOLER BUT GENERALLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR TEMPERATURES
MID TO LATE WEEK.
- PERHAPS MORE WINTRY WEATHER LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SLOWLY SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA TODAY
AND IS BEGINNING TO SLOW AS THE BOUNDARY IS BECOMING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DESPITE A 20 DEGREE
TEMPERATURE SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY AND HAS RESULTED TO FEW TO NO CLOUDS
PASSING OVER THE STATE. FOR TONIGHT, THE BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND STALL. DES MOINES, WATERLOO, MASON CITY
AND OTTUMWA LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE CURRENTLY AT
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES FOR EACH SITE. THE CURRENT DIURNAL
COOLING AND PROJECTED 06Z TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT A FEW OR
ALL OF THE POTENTIAL RECORDS MAY STAND FOR TODAY.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY THOUGH WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW 60S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THAT MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN A SLOW SURGE NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW,
WHICH IS NOW NEAR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST TOWARDS WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE
DYNAMICS TO AMPLIFY AND ALLOW FOR A STRONGER MOISTURE SURGE
NORTHWARD. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML) IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY AND CREATE A SURFACE INSTABILITY CAPPING INVERSION OVER
SOUTHERN IOWA AND IN VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. IT IS
POSSIBLE, SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DOES INITIATE LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SURGE OF STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION LIFTS
NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA RESULTING IN 2000+ J/KG MUCAPE. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SATURATION AND VERTICAL
ASCENT FROM THE SATURATED POINT FOR CONVECTION TO BE INITIATED. IF
THIS DOES OCCUR, THEN A FEW ELEVATED HAIL STORMS COULD OCCUR.
OTHERWISE THE NEXT POTENTIAL ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. AGAIN, THIS LOOKS MAINLY TO BE A HAIL
THREAT THOUGH THAT WILL BECOME LIMITED AS STRONGER SATURATION OCCURS
AND LIMITS THE INSTABILITY AND WEAKENS LAPSE RATES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS UNDER THE EML/INVERSION ALOFT, STRATUS COULD
OCCUR AND WOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN
IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT ALSO. AT THIS TIME, EXPECTING ONLY MINIMAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND MINIMAL IMPACTS WITH THIS PRECIPITATION
WITH THE PERIOD OF SATURATION SHORT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
GENERALLY QUIET AND COOLER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S AND 50S. A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PASS MOVE
INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND WILL CREATE A LONG WAVE TROUGH FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW BACK TO IOWA
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
PATCHY LOW CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS,
THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA THAT WOULD IMPACT KOTM AROUND MID-MORNING, AND KDSM CLOSER
TO 18Z. COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM AT/NEAR KOTM AFTER
00Z, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED DIRECTLY AT
THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN
VARIABLE EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD, THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...BURY
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