391
FXUS63 KDMX 101152
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
652 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST
IOWA TODAY. WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR CHANCE FOR NEARBY WIND AND
TORNADO THREAT.
- BREEZY WEDNESDAY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- NEXT WINDOWS FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUED TO ADVECT IN THE EML OVERNIGHT,
SETTING UP MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY FOR STORMS LATER TODAY, SEEN BEST IN
LOW LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS LOW WILL GET PICKED UP BY THE INBOUND
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ADVECTED NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, THE LLJ IS
OPEN INTO THE PLAINS, BUT VEERS TO THE EAST AS IT NEARS IOWA. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COME AS THE
SURFACE LOW GRAZES SOUTHERN IOWA TODAY. ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION MAY
ALLOW FOR CAP EROSION BY MIDDAY TODAY, WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST IOWA.
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 40KTS WILL ALLOW
ELEVATED STORMS TO LAST LONGER. THE WARM SECTOR WITH 60 DEGREE DEW
POINTS IS CLOSE BY, RESIDING IN FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FRONTAL PLACEMENT FOR PLACES LIKE
DAVIS COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AS INITIATION OF SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO START NEAR THE WARM FRONT BETWEEN 4 AND
7PM. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY CONTAINED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS EXITING SYSTEM CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW (UNDER 1"),
OWED TO THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DELAY IN FREEZING
TEMPERATURES UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS AS THEY SIT ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BE UNDERDONE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE AVERAGE PBL WINDS
ARE CLOSE TO 30KTS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR GIVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THESE WINDS WILL TRANSFER DOWN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
TROUGHING ENSUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, EFFECTIVELY LOCKING IOWA INTO NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE STATE AS THE THERMAL RIDGE GETS PULLED INTO THE STATE FROM
PASSING WAVES. THE MAIN WINDOWS OF PRECIPITATION COME IN LATE
THURSDAY AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE SECOND SYSTEM
BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VARIABLE WINDS IN SOUTHERN IOWA HAVE LED TO IFR TO LIFR FOG NEAR
OTM SO HAVE ADDED TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 14Z. MOISTURE
WILL LIFT INTO A LOW CIG THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING SCT WITH
TIME. A FRONT WILL SIT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LEADING TO A PERIOD OF VRB WINDS FOR KDSM.
FOR KOTM, AN EARLY AFTERNOON (AROUND 18Z) ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS UNDER 20%,
SO IT'S NOT MENTIONED. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FIRST ROUND. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN BEGIN NEAR OTM AFTER 21Z, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN
LOCATION, SO HAVE ADDED A PROB30 GROUP. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SECOND ROUND OF STORMS.
RAIN, SOME SNOW, AND LOWERING CIGS THEN ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH
AFTER 06Z WITH SITES POSSIBLY DROPPING FROM MVFR TO IFR NEAR
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JIMENEZ
LONG TERM...JIMENEZ
AVIATION...JIMENEZ
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