483
FXUS63 KDMX 101751
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1251 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
...UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST
IOWA TODAY. WILL WATCH CLOSELY FOR CHANCE FOR NEARBY WIND AND
TORNADO THREAT.
- BREEZY WEDNESDAY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- NEXT WINDOWS FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY AND AGAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUED TO ADVECT IN THE EML OVERNIGHT,
SETTING UP MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY FOR STORMS LATER TODAY, SEEN BEST IN
LOW LEVEL WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. THIS LOW WILL GET PICKED UP BY THE INBOUND
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ADVECTED NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, THE LLJ IS
OPEN INTO THE PLAINS, BUT VEERS TO THE EAST AS IT NEARS IOWA. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. ANOTHER SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COME AS THE
SURFACE LOW GRAZES SOUTHERN IOWA TODAY. ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION MAY
ALLOW FOR CAP EROSION BY MIDDAY TODAY, WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST IOWA.
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 40KTS WILL ALLOW
ELEVATED STORMS TO LAST LONGER. THE WARM SECTOR WITH 60 DEGREE DEW
POINTS IS CLOSE BY, RESIDING IN FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FRONTAL PLACEMENT FOR PLACES LIKE
DAVIS COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AS INITIATION OF SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO START NEAR THE WARM FRONT BETWEEN 4 AND
7PM. ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY CONTAINED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS EXITING SYSTEM CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW (UNDER 1"),
OWED TO THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DELAY IN FREEZING
TEMPERATURES UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS AS THEY SIT ON
WEDNESDAY MAY BE UNDERDONE. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE AVERAGE PBL WINDS
ARE CLOSE TO 30KTS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR GIVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THESE WINDS WILL TRANSFER DOWN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
TROUGHING ENSUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, EFFECTIVELY LOCKING IOWA INTO NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE STATE AS THE THERMAL RIDGE GETS PULLED INTO THE STATE FROM
PASSING WAVES. THE MAIN WINDOWS OF PRECIPITATION COME IN LATE
THURSDAY AND AGAIN LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE SECOND SYSTEM
BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A LOT OF MOVING PARTS THIS AVIATION PERIOD. STARTING WITH RIGHT
NOW, A STUBBORN AREA OF IFR TO LIFR STRATUS HAS LINGERED OVER
SOUTHERN IOWA, IMPACTING KOTM THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. FOG
BENEATH THIS STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS HEATING
CONTINUES AND WINDS PICK UP, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW
QUICKLY THIS WILL BE. THIS AREA OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHWARD WHICH SHOULD BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AND
IMPROVEMENT INTO THE KOTM AREA. AS THIS DRIFTS NORTH, STRATUS
WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE KDSM BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS TO
KDSM. HAVE NOT INCLUDED IFR CONDITIONS IN KDSM TAF, BUT
DEPENDING HOW AGGRESSIVE STRATUS PROGRESSION IS, IFR CEILINGS
MAY DEVELOP FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE
MONITORING THIS STRATUS DECK CLOSELY AND AMEND ACCORDINGLY.
IN ADDITION TO STRATUS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA, POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING KOTM. HOWEVER, TRENDS FOR RAIN AND STORMS HAVE BEEN
MOVING FARTHER SOUTH WHICH COULD KEEP KOTM MOSTLY DRY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED THUNDER AND RAIN MENTION FOR
NOW, AS STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN PROXIMITY, BUT WILL LIKELY
NEED TO AMEND AS LOCATION BECOMES CLEARER. IN ADDITION TO
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON, RAIN MAY ALSO EXTEND
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT, IMPACTING KOTM FOR A
PERIOD OF TIME AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FINALLY, A LIGHT RAIN TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW WILL DRIFT
THROUGH NORTHERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA, IMPACTING KFOD, KMCW
AND KALO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS TO BE
FAIRLY LIGHT, BUT COULD OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS AT EACH SITE. THIS
WILL ALSO BRING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL. SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS PRECIPITATION AT KDSM AND KOTM IS LESS CERTAIN DUE TO
DRIER CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER, IF ANY PRECIPITATION
DOES OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING, IT WOULD LIKELY
FALL AS RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JIMENEZ
LONG TERM...JIMENEZ
AVIATION...DODSON
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