961
FXUS63 KDMX 110850
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
350 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY FOLLOWED BY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY. BOTH DAYS FEATURING GUSTY
WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
- WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE--AND WORSEN--THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. WIND GUSTS
OVER 50MPH LIKELY.
- MONITORING A WINTRY SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL BRING TRAVEL
IMPACTS TO THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
AS RAIN AND STORMS PUSHED TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT, A BROAD BAND OF
SNOW FROM A NORTHERN STREAM SYNOPTIC SHORTWAVE BEGAN TO ENTER IOWA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS ROUND OF SNOW IS PRIMARILY FUELED BY
PACIFIC MOISTURE AND WILL YIELD LOW-END SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS
REASON. PLACES LIKE ESTHERVILLE COULD SEE AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH, BUT
MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THAT VALUE, OWED ALSO TO THE
SOIL TEMPERATURES BEING NEAR 40 DEGREES. SUBSIDENCE, CAA, AND A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY AND COOL WEDNESDAY.
30MPH GUSTS WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS EXIST IN THE WEST DUE IN PART BY A SURFACE HIGH ADVECTING
IN DRY AIR.
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS AND MAKE THE REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO MORE WAVES THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT OF NOTE WILL DEEPEN QUICKLY AND APPROACH THE
STATE LATER THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL BOOST
HIGHS, AND DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND, BUT MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF WIND WILL
BE COUNTERED BY WAA AND LIFT. STILL, THE AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN THE
PBL IS 40KTS AND WILL RESULT IN GUSTS OVER 25MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED IN SOUTHWEST IOWA DUE TO THESE WINDS AND RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY IMPACTFUL
THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN IOWA. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
AFTER SUNSET IN TANDEM WITH A PV ANOMALY, ALLOWING FOR MIXING UP TO
AROUND 850MB TO ENSUE OVERNIGHT. WINDS AT THAT LAYER WILL BE OVER
50KTS, AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL AID IN TRANSFERRING THESE WINDS TO
THE SURFACE. THE NORTHERN-MOST TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES IN THE AREA WILL
SEE THE HIGHEST, MOST PROLONGED WINDS AS THE 850MB WIND MAX SETTLES
OVER SOUTHERN MN AFTER 1 AM. ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A WIND ADVISORY
NEEDED FOR THIS TIMEFRAME, AND A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL BE
CONSIDERED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
AS THE JET MAX MOVES OFF, A NORTHERN STREAM JET WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR ACTIVITY INTO THE EXTENDED. ANOTHER FEATURE IS PROGGED TO
EJECT FROM THE PNW AND INTO THE UPPER ROCKIES, DEEPENING A SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. WHILE THERE ARE LOCATION
DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL CAMPS, THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM
AS IT PASSES POINTS TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS
COOLING TEMPERATURES FOR IOWA. THE LIKELY CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN IOWA REFLECT THE BAND OF SNOW THAT
WILL SET UP ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. WHEREVER THAT
SNOW BAND SETS UP, IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS
STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW THE SNOW AROUND, EXACERBATING TRAVEL
IMPACTS IN THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN IOWA
AFTER 09Z AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING, THOUGH THE OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IS LOW. OTHERWISE, WILL SEE A LARGER BAND
OF RAIN SWITCHING TO SNOW ARRIVING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AFTER 09Z
AND TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF
LOWER VSBYS FROM MORE EFFICIENT SNOWFALL OVER NORTHERN IOWA,
WITH OTHERWISE LARGELY RAIN AT KDSM AND KOTM, THOUGH CANNOT RULE
OUT A BRIEF TRANSITION TO SNOW. WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 18Z, BEFORE
IMPROVING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, INCREASING AS GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JIMENEZ
LONG TERM...JIMENEZ
AVIATION...BURY
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